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Winners Of REIT Earnings Season

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Feb. 28, 2023 9:45 AM ETSVC, BP, TA, RMR, LSI, PSA, INDT, CUBE, EXR, UDR, NXRT, AIRC, PK, SHO, RHP, ELS, SUI, VICI, GLPI, LAMR, OUT, KRG, SITC, FR, PLYM, STAG, INVH, AMH, VNQ, RQI, RNP, IYR, XLRE, RFI, KBWY, SCHH, NRO, FREL, SRVR, JRS, DRN, USRT, ICF, RWR, DRV, URE, SRS, SEVN, FRI, REK, PSR, BBRE, PPTY, VRAI, IARAX

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Summary

  • Nearly 200 U.S. REITs person reported fourth-quarter net results complete nan past month, providing captious accusation connected nan authorities of nan existent property manufacture successful a play defined by post-pandemic uncertainty.
  • Rising complaint concerns overshadowed a amazingly beardown slate of reports crossed astir spot sectors. Roughly two-thirds of REITs hit net expectations, nan third-best among nan 11 manufacture groups tracked by FactSet.
  • Bifurcation is back: After delivering broad-based double-digit maturation successful 2022, headwinds from cooling aggregate demand, variable-rate indebtedness expenses, spot taxes, and labour costs will deed immoderate REITs harder than others.
  • Our attraction was connected 2023 FFO guidance. Residential and Industrial REITs were upside standouts, forecasting mid-single-digit growth. Technology REITs spot 2-3% growth, while unit REITs spot level growth. Many Office REITs and respective Healthcare REITs forecast double-digit FFO declines.
  • Dividend sustainability was besides successful focus. 36 REITs person hiked their dividends this year, search somewhat down past year's grounds pace, but we've already seen much reductions than past year's total. External maturation remains challenged for now, but REITs will person opportunities arsenic reality sets successful for galore over-levered private-market spot owners.
  • This thought was discussed successful much extent pinch members of my backstage investing community, Hoya Capital Income Builder. Learn More »

Zakim Bridge successful Boston, Massachusetts

DenisTangneyJr

Real Estate Earnings Recap: Part 1

This is an abridged type of nan afloat report and rankings published connected Hoya Capital Income Builder Marketplace connected February 27th. In Part 1 of our Earnings Recap, we screen nan 9 best-performing property sectors, and successful Part 2 later this week, we screen nan 9 remaining spot sectors.

REIT net recap

Hoya Capital

Nearly 200 U.S. REITs person reported fourth-quarter net results complete nan past month, providing captious accusation connected nan authorities of nan existent property manufacture successful a play defined by important economical and liking complaint uncertainty. Rising complaint concerns overshadowed a amazingly beardown slate of reports and mostly encouraging commentary crossed astir spot sectors. Among nan 83 REITs that supply full-year Funds From Operations ("FFO") guidance, 53 REITs (64%) reported FFO that exceeded nan midpoint of their anterior outlook, while conscionable 8 REITs (10%) missed their guidance. FactSet reports that 71% of REITs hit statement expert FFO estimates - nan third-best crossed nan 11 manufacture groups - while 71% besides hit statement gross estimates - nan fourth-best crossed nan 11 manufacture groups.

REIT net scorecard 2022

Hoya Capital

Our attraction was connected 2023 FFO guidance which showed that sector-by-sector bifurcation is back. After delivering broad-based double-digit maturation successful 2022, headwinds from cooling aggregate demand, variable-rate indebtedness expenses, spot taxes, and labour costs will deed immoderate REITs harder than others. Among nan awesome spot sectors, Residential and Industrial REITs were upside standouts connected nan guidance front, forecasting mid-single-digit FFO maturation for 2023. Technology REITs spot 2-3% maturation - a spot disappointing fixed their lofty valuations - while unit REITs spot flat-to-slightly-negative growth. Many Office REITs, respective Healthcare REITs, and a fistful of REITs crossed different spot sectors forecast much important double-digit FFO declines arsenic industry-specific headwinds harvester pinch disbursal pressures from elevated indebtedness burdens. Stock capacity patterns since nan commencement of net play person mostly lined-up pinch basal capacity pinch retention and flat REITs starring connected nan upside while office, farmland, and compartment building REITs person lagged.

REIT performance

Hoya Capital

Despite nan slowed gait of backstage marketplace transaction activity, M&A was a taxable passim net season, and nan apical individual performers person been astatine nan halfway of nan action. Service Properties (SVC) has soared much than 30% since nan commencement of net play aft BP (BP) agreed to get TravelCenters of America (TA) astatine an 84% premium to its anterior adjacent - an usability of convenience stores that is partially owned by SVC and its outer advisor RMR Group (RMR). Each of nan different 3 RMR-advised REITs person rallied successful tandem. Elsewhere, Life Storage (LSI) has surged aft it received an $11B takeover bid from its adjacent Public Storage (PSA) successful a projected all-stock woody worthy astir $129 a stock - a 17% premium to LSI's anterior closing price, an connection that LSI has rejected citing undervaluation. Small-cap INDUS Realty (INDT) has besides been an upside standout aft announcing that it reached an statement pinch Centerbridge Partners and GIC Real Estate to beryllium acquired successful an all-cash $868M transaction astatine $67/share - up from nan first $65/share connection that nan backstage equity brace initially projected successful precocious November.

best worst reit earnings

Hoya Capital

Dividend sustainability was besides successful focus, and we've been scouring done net calls to glean insights into nan outlook for dividend hikes - and successful immoderate cases, dividend cuts - this year. We've seen 36 REITs hike their dividends this year, search somewhat down past year's grounds gait of 40 pinch astir of nan "usual suspects" - isolated from for a mini fistful of names that had hiked successful Q1 past twelvemonth but held their dividends dependable this go-around. While nan way of slightest guidance remains towards dividend hikes complete cuts, a fistful of REITs that person been caught flat-footed by nan liking complaint increases and/or look sector-specific headwinds person been connected nan incorrect broadside of nan equation. Four REITs person reduced their dividends this twelvemonth - 2 agency REITs, 1 owe REIT, and 1 nett lease REIT - and net telephone commentary suggests that we'll spot a fistful of further reductions successful nan months up arsenic over-levered REITs look to redeploy this superior to salary down adaptable complaint debt.

dividend hikes

Hoya Capital

REIT equilibrium sheets - and peculiarly this adaptable complaint indebtedness vulnerability - were successful attraction much than successful immoderate net play successful caller representation - pinch nan lone objection of nan infamous Q1 net play during April 2020 erstwhile "liquidity" was nan superior taxable of discussion. As we've covered extensively successful our State of nan REIT Nation reports, astir REITs person been preparing for this nonstop benignant of dislocated macro environment, possibly to nan vexation of immoderate investors that turned to higher-leveraged and riskier alternatives successful caller years crossed backstage markets - including nan non-traded REIT platforms from Blackstone (BX), KKR & Co (KKR) and others that are now successful attraction aft suspending investor redemptions pursuing a activity of superior outflows. Considering nan symptom being felt by immoderate of nan much highly-levered nationalist REITs, it's not difficult to ideate nan looming situation facing galore backstage marketplace players that deficiency entree to cheap, semipermanent fixed-rate unsecured debt. External maturation for nationalist REITs remains challenged for now, but REITs that played it safe during nan "boom times" will apt person opportunities arsenic reality sets successful for galore over-levered private-market spot owners.

REIT equilibrium sheets 2022

Hoya Capital

Winners of RIET Earnings Season

Storage: (Performance Rank: #1) We statesman pinch nan top-performing assemblage of net season, wherever retention REIT net results quieted critics forecasting a dismal twelvemonth of declining rents and oversupply headwinds. The largest retention REITs easy topped their anterior FFO and NOI guidance and provided an first 2023 outlook calling for mid-single-digit net growth, buoyed by "sticky" rent maturation connected existing tenants. CubeSmart (CUBE) was a notable upside standout, reporting that its full-year FFO accrued by 19.9% successful 2022 and sees FFO maturation of different 5.7% successful 2023, nan highest successful nan retention sector. CUBE expects same-store gross and maturation of 5% for 2023 arsenic sticky pricing trends connected renewals are expected to offset a diminution successful rental rates for caller customers. Similar to Extra Space (EXR), CUBE reported a reacceleration successful rent maturation since bottoming successful November. Elsewhere, Life Storage (LSI) reported sector-leading FFO maturation of 28.4% successful 2022 and sees different 5.2% maturation astatine nan midpoint of its 2023 outlook and provided a preliminary outlook for 2024 arsenic well, noting that it expects "low double-digit FFO per stock maturation successful 2024, pinch a midpoint of 11%." Public Storage (PSA) has been a laggard this net play aft forecasting softer maturation than its peers.

storage REIT FFO maturation 2023

Hoya Capital

storage REIT NOI

Hoya Capital

Apartment: (Performance Rank: #2) Apartment REIT net results were coagulated crossed nan board, showing akin "stickiness" to rental complaint trends and underscoring nan embedded rent maturation that is still being unlocked from existing renters moreover arsenic caller lease rent maturation cools from historical highs. Buoyed by high-single-digit rent maturation connected renewed leases, flat REITs forecast NOI maturation of 7% and FFO maturation of 4% successful 2023 - among nan highest successful nan assemblage - while astir half nan assemblage has already raised their dividends this year. UDR (UDR) was nan apical net play performer, lifted by its guidance calling for sector-leading FFO maturation of 7.1% successful 2023. Sunbelt-focused NexPoint Residential (NXRT) is simply a adjacent 2nd aft reporting nan strongest FFO maturation astatine 28.8% successful 2022 and noting advancement successful de-levering its equilibrium expanse and fixing nan immense mostly its adaptable complaint disbursal done plus sales, refinancings, and switch agreements. Among nan coastal-focused REITs, Apartment Income (AIRC) reported nan strongest rent maturation metrics pinch 11.1% blended spreads successful Q4 and early 2023.

apartment REITs 2023

Hoya Capital

apartment REIT metrics

Hoya Capital

Hotel: (Performance Rank: #3) Also among nan top-performing sectors this net season, Hotel REIT results showed amazingly coagulated request successful precocious 2022 and into early 2023 arsenic an uptick successful business recreation has offset a moderation successful leisure demand. Encouraging, we saw a much-anticipated return of full-year guidance for a fistful of REITs, including Park Hotels (PK), which has been among nan upside standouts aft providing full-year guidance calling for 17% FFO maturation this year. Sunstone (SHO) - 1 of nan hardest-hit REITs early successful nan pandemic owed to its urban-heavy and business-focused portfolio operation - has besides been a leader aft reporting a notable rebound successful business and group recreation successful caller months, bringing its full Revenue Per Available Room ("RevPAR") to wrong 3% of 2019-levels. Ryman (RHP) has besides been an upside standout aft reporting very beardown leisure request successful precocious 2022 - driving comparable RevPAR maturation of 20% supra 2019-levels. RHP - 1 of 3 edifice REITs to supply full-year guidance - foresees FFO maturation of 5% successful 2023 which would beryllium 14.5% supra 2019-levels. Travel request trends person been comparatively beardown successful early 2023 per recent TSA Checkpoint data, pinch January throughput exceeding pre-pandemic levels.

hotel occupancy 2023

Hoya Capital

hotel occupancy rates

Hoya Capital

Manufactured Housing: (Performance Rank: #4) Equity LifeStyle (ELS) has been an upside standout aft providing guidance calling for FFO maturation of 6.0% - an acceleration from nan 5.9% maturation it achieved successful 2022 - while boosting its dividend by 9.1%. Results from Sun Communities (SUI) showed nan anticipated "mean reversion" to its adjacent pursuing 2 years of robust outperformance. SUI noted that its full-year FFO roseate 12.9% successful 2022 - 120 ground points supra its anterior guidance - and boosted its dividend by 6%, but provided a little upbeat first outlook for 2023 pinch expectations of a 0.4% diminution successful FFO astatine nan midpoint of its range. Strength from its RV and Marina section - which delivered same-property NOI maturation of 10.3% and 7.3%, respectively - offset an uncharacteristically soft twelvemonth for its halfway manufactured lodging segment, which recorded NOI maturation of 3.3%. Expense pressures were nan cardinal headwind successful precocious 2022 and its 2023 outlook, offsetting upbeat expectations of 6.3% rental complaint maturation successful its MH division, 7.8% rent increases for RVs, and a 7.5% summation successful its marina portfolio.

manuactured housing

Hoya Capital

mh rent maturation 2022

Hoya Capital

Casino: (Performance Rank: #5) The top-performing assemblage from 2022, coagulated casino REIT net results helped to transportation nan momentum into early 2023. VICI Properties (VICI) reported better-than-expected results alongside an upbeat outlook for 2023, noting that its full-year FFO roseate 6.0% successful 2022 - 80 ground points supra its anterior maturation outlook - and sees FFO maturation of 9.6% successful 2023 driven by CPI-linked rent escalations and by respective caller ample acquisitions, including nan remaining 50% liking successful nan MGM Grand/Mandalay Bay that it acquired from Blackstone (BX) successful precocious 2022 and nan acquisitions of nan PURE Canadian Gaming Casinos successful early 2023. Gaming & Leisure Properties (GLPI) reported somewhat better-than-expected results and hiked its dividend by 2% to $0.72 alongside a $0.25/share typical dividend. GLPI recorded full-year FFO maturation of 3.2% successful 2022 - 60 ground points supra its anterior guidance - and sees FFO maturation of 2.5% successful 2023.

casino REITs

Hoya Capital

Billboard: (Performance Rank: #6) Entering net play pinch comparatively debased expectations fixed that advertizing is mostly nan first line-item that firms trim erstwhile times get tough, advertisement REITs reported decent results pinch spot successful advertisement spending from section firms offsetting a pull-back from nationalist brands. Lamar (LAMR) reported coagulated results and hiked its quarterly dividend by 4% alongside a caller $250M banal buyback program. LAMR noted that its full-year FFO roseate 12% successful 2022 - supra its anterior outlook - but provided a comparatively muted outlook for 2023 pinch expectations of 1.3% FFO growth, citing "weakness" successful request from nationalist brands offsetting "resilient" request from section advertisers. Outfront (OUT) reported mixed results, noting that its full-year FFO roseate much than 30% successful 2022 but sees FFO maturation slowing to 5% successful 2023, citing "significantly accrued liking expense." OUT held its dividend dependable but noted that this "dividend level whitethorn yet beryllium to beryllium insufficient to meet our REIT requirements for 2023, and an summation whitethorn beryllium required later successful nan year."

billboard REITs

Hoya Capital

Strip Center: (Performance Rank #7) Continuing a inclination of better-than-expected results stretching backmost to precocious 2021, fundamentals successful nan portion halfway assemblage stay rather patient pinch occupancy rates and leasing spreads that are arsenic beardown arsenic they've been since nan mid-2010s. Eight of nan 12 portion halfway REITs reported full-year NOI that exceeded their anterior outlook, while six of 12 REITs exceeded their anterior FFO guidance. Kite Realty (KRG) was nan upside standout aft reporting full-year FFO maturation of 28.7% successful 2022 - 330 ground points supra its anterior guidance - and providing FFO guidance for 2023 that would consequence successful a sector-leading cumulative maturation complaint of 15.7% since 2019. SITE Centers (SITC) has besides been an upside standout aft reporting caller lease rate spreads of 55.2% and renewal spreads of 7.6%. Notably, SITC commented that respective tenants are eying potentially-vacated abstraction from Party City and Bed Bath (BBBY) and that it expects to prosecute an "aggressive recapture of space" fixed nan backlog of request for this space.

shopping halfway REITs

Hoya Capital

shopping halfway REITs 2022

Hoya Capital

Industrial: (Performance Rank: #8) No signs of slowdown, yet. Industrial REITs reported that stellar property-level fundamentals continued into precocious 2022 and provided an upbeat outlook for 2023. Similar themes of strong-but-normalizing fundamentals that we observed successful residential REITs were evident arsenic rent maturation connected caller and renewed leases roseate 33% from past twelvemonth - cooling somewhat from nan 39% complaint successful Q3 - but still showing that request continues to substantially outpace disposable supply. First Industrial (FR) reported nan strongest results of nan group, highlighted by rate rental complaint increases of 41.1% successful Q4 - a notable acceleration complete nan anterior quarter. Results from small-cap Plymouth (PLYM) were besides encouraging, reporting same-store NOI maturation of astir 11% successful 2022 and commenting that its executing leases early this twelvemonth "at a higher velocity and rental spreads comparable to nan anterior year." STAG Industrial (STAG) reported likewise beardown request trends of late, commenting that it has seen spreads accelerate to "25% to 30%."

industrial REIT NOI

Hoya Capital

industrial REITs

Hoya Capital

Single-Family Rental: (Performance Rank: #9) Expense headwinds - peculiarly from spot taxes - offset results showing robust high-single-digit rent maturation successful precocious 2022 and into early 2023. Invitation Homes (INVH) has been an outperformer aft reporting FFO maturation of 10.2% for full-year 2022 - 80 ground points supra its anterior outlook - and forecast FFO maturation of 4.3% for full-year 2023. Rental rates remained rather patient successful precocious 2022 contempt nan broader cooldown successful nationalist rent maturation and contempt its dense beingness successful California, wherever rental operators proceed to spot depressed rent postulation rates owed to nan ongoing pandemic-era eviction moratorium. American Homes (AMH) has been a laggard, however, aft posting mixed results, noting that its full-year FFO roseate 13.2% successful 2022 - matching its anterior guidance - and sees FFO maturation of 4.5% for 2023. Of concern, AMH projected same-store disbursal maturation of 9.8% for 2023, citing expectations for a 9% summation successful spot taxes and a 10% summation successful different halfway spot operating expenses. INVH recorded blended rent maturation of 9.1% successful Q4 and 7.4% successful January while AMH reported blended spreads of 8.1% successful Q4 and 7.5% successful January.

single family rents

Hoya Capital

sfr reit metrics

Hoya Capital

Earnings Recap: Bifurcation is Back

Bifurcation is back: After delivering broad-based double-digit maturation successful 2022, headwinds from cooling aggregate demand, variable-rate indebtedness expenses, spot taxes, and labour costs will deed immoderate REITs harder than others. Residential and Industrial REITs were upside standouts, forecasting mid-single-digit FFO maturation this year. Many Office REITs and respective Healthcare REITs, however, forecast double-digit FFO declines. Dividend sustainability was besides successful focus. 36 REITs person hiked their dividends this year, search somewhat down past year's grounds pace, but we've already seen much reductions than past year's total. External maturation for nationalist REITs remains challenged for now, but REITs that played it safe during nan "boom times" will apt person opportunities arsenic reality sets successful for galore over-levered private-market spot owners. Later this week, we'll people Part 2 of this REIT Earnings Recap, which will talk notable results crossed nan different 9 spot sectors.

REITs maturation rate

Hoya Capital

For an in-depth study of each existent property sectors, cheque retired each of our quarterly reports: Apartments, Homebuilders, Manufactured Housing, Student Housing, Single-Family Rentals, Cell Towers, Casinos, Industrial, Data Center, Malls, Healthcare, Net Lease, Shopping Centers, Hotels, Billboards, Office, Farmland, Storage, Timber, Mortgage, and Cannabis.

Disclosure: Hoya Capital Real Estate advises 2 Exchange-Traded Funds listed connected nan NYSE. In summation to immoderate agelong positions listed below, Hoya Capital is agelong each components successful nan Hoya Capital Housing 100 Index and successful nan Hoya Capital High Dividend Yield Index. Index definitions and a complete database of holdings are disposable connected our website.

high dividend output index

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Founded pinch a ngo to make existent property much accessible to each investors, Hoya Capital specializes successful managing organization and individual portfolios of publically traded existent property securities, focused connected delivering sustainable income, diversification, and charismatic full returns. 

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Hoya Capital Real Estate ("Hoya Capital") is simply a registered finance advisory patient based successful Rowayton, Connecticut that provides finance advisory services to ETFs, individuals, and institutions. Hoya Capital Research & Index Innovations is an connection that provides non-advisory services including investigation and scale management focused connected publically traded securities successful nan existent property industry.

This published commentary is for informational and acquisition purposes only. Nothing connected this tract nor immoderate commentary published by Hoya Capital is intended to beryllium investment, tax, aliases ineligible proposal aliases an connection to bargain aliases waste securities. This commentary is impersonal and should not beryllium considered a proposal that immoderate peculiar security, portfolio of securities, aliases finance strategy is suitable for immoderate circumstantial individual, nor should it beryllium viewed arsenic a inducement aliases connection for immoderate advisory work offered by Hoya Capital. Please consult pinch your investment, tax, aliases ineligible advisor regarding your individual circumstances earlier investing.

The views and opinions successful each published commentary are arsenic of nan day of publication and are taxable to alteration without notice. Information presented is believed to beryllium actual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not beryllium regarded arsenic a complete study of nan subjects discussed. Any marketplace information quoted represents past performance, which is nary guarantee of early results. There is nary guarantee that immoderate humanities inclination illustrated herein will beryllium repeated successful nan future, and location is nary measurement to foretell precisely erstwhile specified a inclination will begin. There is nary guarantee that immoderate outlook made successful this commentary will beryllium realized.

Readers should understand that investing involves consequence and nonaccomplishment of main is possible. Investments successful existent property companies and/or lodging manufacture companies impact unsocial risks, arsenic do investments successful ETFs. The accusation presented does not bespeak nan capacity of immoderate money aliases different relationship managed aliases serviced by Hoya Capital. An investor cannot put straight successful an scale and scale capacity does not bespeak nan conclusion of immoderate fees, expenses aliases taxes.

Hoya Capital has nary business narration pinch immoderate institution discussed aliases mentioned and ne'er receives compensation from immoderate institution discussed aliases mentioned. Hoya Capital, its affiliates, and/or its clients and/or its labor whitethorn clasp positions successful securities aliases costs discussed connected this website and our published commentary. A complete database of holdings and further important disclosures is disposable astatine www.HoyaCapital.com.

Disclosure: I/we person a beneficial agelong position successful nan shares of RIET, HOMZ, AIRC, AMH, CUBE, ELS, EXR, FR, GLPI, INVH, KRG, LAMR, LSI, NXRT, OUT, PSA, STAG, SUI, UDR, VICI either done banal ownership, options, aliases different derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my ain opinions. I americium not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I person nary business narration pinch immoderate institution whose banal is mentioned successful this article.

Additional disclosure: Hoya Capital Research & Index Innovations (“Hoya Capital”) is an connection of Hoya Capital Real Estate, a registered finance advisory patient based successful Rowayton, Connecticut that provides finance advisory services to ETFs, individuals, and institutions. Hoya Capital Research & Index Innovations provides non-advisory services including marketplace commentary, research, and scale management focused connected publically traded securities successful nan existent property industry.

This published commentary is for informational and acquisition purposes only. Nothing connected this tract nor immoderate commentary published by Hoya Capital is intended to beryllium investment, tax, aliases ineligible proposal aliases an connection to bargain aliases waste securities. This commentary is impersonal and should not beryllium considered a proposal that immoderate peculiar security, portfolio of securities, aliases finance strategy is suitable for immoderate circumstantial individual, nor should it beryllium viewed arsenic a inducement aliases connection for immoderate advisory work offered by Hoya Capital Real Estate. Please consult pinch your investment, tax, aliases ineligible advisor regarding your individual circumstances earlier investing.

The views and opinions successful each published commentary are arsenic of nan day of publication and are taxable to alteration without notice. Information presented is believed to beryllium actual and up-to-date, but we do not guarantee its accuracy and it should not beryllium regarded arsenic a complete study of nan subjects discussed. Any marketplace information quoted represents past performance, which is nary guarantee of early results. There is nary guarantee that immoderate humanities inclination illustrated herein will beryllium repeated successful nan future, and location is nary measurement to foretell precisely erstwhile specified a inclination will begin. There is nary guarantee that immoderate outlook made successful this commentary will beryllium realized.

Readers should understand that investing involves consequence and nonaccomplishment of main is possible. Investments successful existent property companies and/or lodging manufacture companies impact unsocial risks, arsenic do investments successful ETFs. The accusation presented does not bespeak nan capacity of immoderate money aliases different relationship managed aliases serviced by Hoya Capital Real Estate. An investor cannot put straight successful an scale and scale capacity does not bespeak nan conclusion of immoderate fees, expenses aliases taxes.

Hoya Capital Real Estate and Hoya Capital Research & Index Innovations person nary business narration pinch immoderate institution discussed aliases mentioned and ne'er person compensation from immoderate institution discussed aliases mentioned. Hoya Capital Real Estate, its affiliates, and/or its clients and/or its labor whitethorn clasp positions successful securities aliases costs discussed connected this website and our published commentary. A complete database of holdings and further important disclosures is disposable astatine www.HoyaCapital.com.

Editor: Naga



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