Week Ahead - Economic Data Dominates

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US

The latest information of economical information (retail sales, CPI, PPI, jobless claims) are each signaling much Fed complaint hikes are coming. Wall Street will salary adjacent attraction to nan flash PMIs, which could show manufacturing and work assemblage activity is stabilizing, existing location sales, jobless claims, and individual income & spending data. The 2nd look astatine Q4 GDP and halfway PCE are besides expected arsenic is nan last sentiment reference from nan University of Michigan.

The statement betwixt quarter-point and 50-basis-point complaint rises by nan Fed has returned. The FOMC minutes will intimately beryllium watched, particularly aft Fed’s Bullard and Mester noted they were reasoning astir half-point rises. Fed speak includes appearances by Bostic and Daly connected Thursday, while Jefferson, Collins, and Waller speak connected Friday.

Earnings play continues pinch cardinal updates from Alibaba (BABA), Baidu (BIDU), BASF (OTCQX:BASFY), BHP (BHP), Block (SQ), Booking (BKNG), CIBC, Cheniere Energy (LNG), Deutsche Telekom (OTCQX:DTEGY), eBay (EBAY), Engie (OTCPK:ENGIY), Eni (E), Home Depot (HD), HSBC (HSBC), Iberdrola (OTCPK:IBDSF), Intuit (ISRG), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP), Moderna (MRNA), Munich Re (OTCPK:MURGY), Nvidia (NVDA), Rio Tinto (RIO), Walmart (WMT), and Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD).

Eurozone

It’s improbable to beryllium a game-changing week but location are immoderate very absorbing economical information releases that traders will salary adjacent attraction to. The 1 that stands retired is nan HICP ostentation data, though being a revised number we whitethorn not get overmuch from it. The PMI surveys could beryllium of greater consequence, being flash readings that will proceed to overgarment a image of really good nan bloc is holding up.

UK

A quiet week for nan UK pinch nan early portion bringing PMIs from nan services and manufacturing sectors and nan second BoE appearances. The outlook for nan UK remains confusing contempt each of nan optimism and conscionable arsenic we’re seeing setbacks elsewhere, location will apt beryllium plentifulness present too. Investors look convinced nan extremity of nan tightening rhythm is nigh, buoyed by nan MPC’s assurance connected nan way of ostentation this year. The PMIs will connection further penetration into nan authorities of nan system while nan speeches whitethorn shed a small much ray connected what this each intends up of adjacent month’s meeting.

Russia

The monetary argumentation study whitethorn beryllium of liking adjacent week, though rates person now been connected clasp for nan past 5 months. PPI information is expected to show nan deflation inclination remains intact, thing that whitethorn trigger a alteration successful thought connected rates should it select done to nan CPI numbers.

South Africa

Unemployment and PPI information are released adjacent week, nan second of which whitethorn drawback nan oculus a small much fixed nan imaginable implications for CPI ostentation and liking rates. We’re still a measurement disconnected from nan adjacent SARB gathering which takes spot astatine nan extremity of March but pinch ostentation now only a small supra nan 3-6% target scope and halfway good within, nan lawsuit for further complaint hikes is weakening.

On Wednesday, Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana will present nan National Budget reside to Parliament. The authorities has galore priorities that it must reside and uncovering that equilibrium will beryllium nary easy feat. Markets, arsenic ever, will beryllium watching.

Turkey

There’s nary uncertainty what nan main arena is adjacent week. The CBRT is expected to resume its easing programme pinch different 1% cut, taking nan cardinal complaint to 8%. The cardinal slope hasn’t been awkward astir going further than markets expect before, aliases peculiarly concerned astir nan consequences. So we shouldn’t beryllium amazed if it does truthful again.

Switzerland

Very small of statement connected nan schedule adjacent week, nan astir notable perchance being nan ZEW survey. A 0.5% complaint hike is still expected astatine nan adjacent scheduled gathering connected 23 March but pinch ostentation still moving uncomfortably supra target; nan only consequence is nan SNB won’t hold that long.

China

The magnitude of support that will get pumped into China’s system mightiness dangle connected really good their reopening goes. This week’s main arena for China is nan determination connected indebtedness premier rates. Given nan PBOC kept nan cardinal complaint dependable earlier this month, some nan 1-year and 5-year indebtedness premier rates are expected to stay unchanged from a period agone astatine 3.65% and 4.30% respectively.

China is still wide expected to easiness sometime soon and that should support nan outlook beardown for Asia.

India

No awesome economical releases aliases events are expected.

Australia & New Zealand

The RBNZ is wide expected to present its 10th-straight complaint hike, pinch nan mostly of analysts expecting a half-point complaint emergence to 4.75%. The statement scope is anyplace from a quarter-point complaint emergence to arsenic precocious arsenic a 75 bp complaint increase. Extreme upwind whitethorn support ostentation pressures going, truthful nan RBNZ should stay somewhat hawkish.

New Zealand’s second-tier information releases besides see PPI, waste and acquisition balance, and in installments paper spending.

The main economical merchandise for Australia is Q4 costs information that is expected to show salary maturation remained, but struggled to support up pinch inflation. The merchandise of Q4 backstage superior expenditure should show an betterment from -0.6% to +0.9%.

Japan

The attraction successful Japan will beryllium connected 2 large events. Kazuo Ueda, nan government’s nominee to go nan adjacent BOJ governor, is expected to speak astatine a confirmation proceeding astatine nan little location of parliament connected February 24th. Japan’s ostentation study is besides expected to show halfway prices roseate to nan fastest levels since 1981.

Singapore

The January ostentation study is expected to beryllium basking arsenic nan labour marketplace remains tight and overseas travelers return. Industrial accumulation is besides expected to improve, pinch nan year-over-year reference expanding from -3.1% to -1.9%.

Economic Calendar

Saturday, Feb. 18

Economic Events

• Major leaders be nan 59th Munich Security Conference
• Hungary PM Orban gives his yearly state-of-the-nation speech

Sunday, Feb. 19

Economic Event

• US Secretary of State Blinken’s European travel includes visits to Turkey, Germany, and Greece

Monday, Feb. 20

Economic Data/Events

• US markets closed for President’s Day
• China indebtedness premier rates
• Eurozone user confidence
• Finland CPI
• Malaysia trade
• Philippines equilibrium of payments
• Sweden CPI
• Taiwan export orders
• Thailand GDP
• US President Joe Biden is scheduled to sojourn Poland
• EU overseas ministers meet successful Brussels
• Sweden’s Riksbank releases minutes from its February monetary argumentation meeting
• BOE’s Woods speaks astatine nan Association of British Insurers yearly dinner

Tuesday, Feb. 21

Economic Data/Events

• US existing location sales, PMI
• Canada unit sales, CPI
• Eurozone PMI, caller car registrations
• Finland unemployment
• France PMI
• Germany PMI, ZEW study expectations
• Japan PMI
• Mexico unit sales, world reserves
• UK PMI
• Russian President Putin to present his first state-of-the-nation address
• RBA releases minutes from its February argumentation meeting
• Riksbank’s Floden speaks
• Riksbank’s Ohlsson participates successful a roundtable astir nan existent economical situation

Wednesday, Feb. 22

Economic Data/Events

• Fed releases minutes from its Jan. 31-Feb. 1 argumentation meeting
• Germany CPI, IFO business climate
• Italy CPI
• New Zealand trade
• Russia business production
• US MBA owe applications
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand complaint decision: Expected to raise rates by 50bp to 4.75%
• ECB Governing Council meets successful Lapland, for a non-monetary-policy meeting
• BOJ committee personnel Naoki Tamura speaks successful Gunma, Japan
• Riksbank’s Governor Thedeen speaks astir nan system and monetary policy
• South African Finance Minister Godongwana presents nan nationalist budget
• Hong Kong yearly fund presentation

Thursday, Feb. 23

Economic Data/Events

• US 2nd look astatine Q4 GDP, first jobless claims
• Eurozone CPI
• Singapore CPI
• Taiwan business production
• G-20 finance ministers and cardinal slope governors meet successful India
• Turkey interest-rate decision: Expected to trim rates by 100bps to 8.00%
• Mexico’s cardinal slope releases minutes from its February argumentation meeting
• Fed’s Bostic speaks astatine nan bank’s 2023 banking outlook conference
• BOE’s Mann speaks astatine nan Resolution Foundation connected “The Results of Rising Rates: Expectations, Lags and nan Transmission of Monetary Policy”
• BOE’s Cunliffe delivers a keynote reside astatine a G-20 financial and cardinal slope deputies gathering connected “Leveraging National Payment Systems to Enhance Cross-Border Payment Arrangements”
• Riksbank’s Floden speaks connected nan system and monetary policy
• Japan Emperor’s Day holiday

Friday, Feb. 24

Economic Data/Events

• US PCE deflator, individual spending, caller location sales, University of Michigan user sentiment
• Germany GDP
• Japan CPI
• Mexico GDP
• Singapore business production
• One-year people of Russia’s penetration of Ukraine
• German Chancellor Scholz leaves for a three-day travel to India
• BOE’s Tenreyro participates successful a sheet chat titled, “Back to 2% inflation?”
• BOJ governor-nominee Kazuo Ueda appears earlier Japan’s little house

Sovereign Rating Updates

• Netherlands (Fitch)
• Austria (S&P)
• Austria (Moody’s)
• Sweden (Moody’s)

Original Post

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

Based successful London, England, Craig Erlam joined OANDA successful 2015 arsenic a Senior Market Analyst. With much than 5 years’ acquisition arsenic a financial marketplace expert and trader, he focuses connected some basal and method study while conducting macroeconomic commentary. He has been published by The Financial Times, Reuters, nan BBC and The Telegraph, and he besides appears regularly arsenic a impermanent commentator connected Bloomberg TV, CNBC, FOX Business and BNN. Craig holds a afloat rank to nan Society of Technical Analysts and he is recognized arsenic a Certified Financial Technician by nan International Federation of Technical Analysts.