Texas Instruments: A Buy For The Long-Term Dividend Investor

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Texas Instruments Inc (TI) HQ successful Silicon Valley

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Written by Nick Ackerman. This article was primitively published to members of Cash Builder Opportunities connected February 7th, 2023.

Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN) put up numbers successful their latest net that weren't precisely spectacular. They hit connected both nan apical and bottommost lines. Their outlook for nan first 4th was successful a scope that was wrong nan consensus. That's astir nan champion 1 tin dream for successful this environment.

As an Intel (INTC) investor, I cognize precisely what tin hap erstwhile you miss earnings, and nan guidance fixed is terrible. More absorbing is that since that net announcement for INTC shares had snapped backmost earlier reversing little again successful nan past mates of days. In fact, to commencement disconnected this year, nan marketplace has been rallying, including shares of INTC.

Shares of TXN successful this short clip frame person really been rather similar. The wide marketplace seems to beryllium dictating our direction, which is often nan lawsuit successful nan short term.

ChartData by YCharts

However, this update isn't astir nan short-term. Instead, it's astir why I judge that TXN is simply a semipermanent play for a dividend investor.

INTC, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and NVIDIA (NVDA) each look to beryllium nan semiconductor stocks that get astir of nan headlines. The conflict continually rages connected for these names arsenic they are mostly making components successful nan latest and top electronics.

That's precisely what makes TXN different. They make nan chips for everything else. And for nan astir part, everything other is doing reasonably well. They didn't spot nan aforesaid pull-forward request for electronics, gaming and crypto mining that nan different 'sexy' names did done 2020 and 2021.

TI "designs, manufactures, tests and sells analog and embedded semiconductors successful markets that see industrial, automotive, individual electronics, communications instrumentality and endeavor systems."

Since our last coverage of Texas Instruments, nan banal has done comparatively good compared to nan S&P 500.

TXN Performance Since Previous Update

TXN Performance Since Previous Update (Seeking Alpha)

Today, I deliberation it's still a valuable institution that a dividend aliases dividend maturation investor could put successful today.

Past, Recent and Outlook For Earnings

TXN wasn't wholly immune to softness arsenic gross year-over-year successful their latest 4th declined by 3.3%. This was still bully for beating analysts' expectations, a inclination successful which this institution often finds itself. In nan past 14 quarters retired of 16, they've been capable to present a gross surprise.

TXN Revenue Surprise History

TXN Revenue Surprise History (Seeking Alpha)

This isn't constricted to nan top-line estimates, though. In fact, they ran an moreover amended net astonishment and hit nan grounds connected nan EPS broadside of nan equation, wherever 16 retired of nan past 16 quarters were beats.

TXN EPS Surprise History

TXN EPS Surprise History (Seeking Alpha)

With their net outlook for nan first quarter, TI is besides wrong nan scope of consensus. The latest 4th showed a 3.3% diminution year-over-year, but sequentially it declined 11%. The mid-point for Q1 outlook guidance is gross astatine $4.35 billion. That would really beryllium different diminution of 11.4% year-over-year. At nan mid-point of $1.77 EPS for nan quarter, that would beryllium a diminution of 26.9%.

One of nan areas that they called retired specifically successful their net telephone was nan automotive spot demand, arsenic it bucked nan inclination of mostly little request for nan quarter.

Revenue was $4.7 billion, a alteration of 11% sequentially and 3% from nan aforesaid 4th a twelvemonth ago. As expected, our results bespeak weaker request successful each extremity markets pinch nan objection of automotive. A constituent of nan weaker request was customers moving to trim their inventories. In first quarter, we expect a weaker than seasonal decline, pinch nan objection of automotive, arsenic we judge customers will proceed to trim inventory levels. Turning to our segments, 4th fourth Analog gross declined 5% year-over-year and Embedded Processing grew 10%. Our Other conception declined 11% from nan year-ago quarter.

They noted that nan worst-performing conception was individual electronics (computers, phones, tablets and TVs.) That is precisely confirming what we saw from INTC and AMD. They besides noted a crisp driblet successful communications instrumentality being, down astir 20%. However, for TI, electronics is astir 20% of their revenue, and connection instrumentality is 7%. Industrial astatine 40% and automotive astatine 25% of 2022 gross are overmuch much important connected nan result of their earnings.

In 2022, business and automotive mixed made up 65% of TI's revenue, up astir 3 percent points from 2021 and up from 42% successful 2013. We spot bully opportunities successful each of our markets, but we spot further strategical accent connected business and automotive. Our business and automotive customers are progressively turning to analog and embedded technologies to make their extremity products smarter, safer, much connected and much efficient. These trends person resulted and will proceed to consequence successful increasing spot contented per application, which will thrust faster maturation compared to our different markets.

Given their way record, we could beryllium reasonably safe to presume that nan chances of an EPS aliases gross astonishment are reasonably expected astatine this point. This is precisely what companies request to do successful nan short word to make expert interest. Most investors really person aliases should person a longer outlook for holding companies.

I deliberation looking astatine nan agelong word is much important arsenic a buy-and-hold type investor pinch a longer-term outlook. I'm much funny astir what nan outlook is for years down nan road.

Besides nan short-term dip successful net expected for fiscal 2023, net are expected to proceed to turn aft that. If these estimates are achieved, TXN will beryllium backmost to grounds net wrong a fewer years.

TXN EPS Estimates

TXN EPS Estimates (Seeking Alpha)

As they mentioned successful their net call, nan maturation they expect will beryllium tied to nan business and automotive industries. That's wherever they look to person a clear edge, and they aren't stepping distant from that abstraction to compete elsewhere, moreover though it mightiness not beryllium nan astir breathtaking area if it's betwixt individual physics devices and business applications.

Is Now The Time To Buy?

As a semipermanent investor, you still don't needfully want to bargain astatine immoderate price. However, acknowledgment to nan wide weakness we knowledgeable done 2022 and a soft outlook, shares look to beryllium a reasonable worth today. They aren't needfully nan cheapest we could see, but Wall Street analysts person an mean value target of $183.63.

Based connected nan humanities P/E range, nan adjacent worth estimate besides indicates we could spot immoderate upside from here. Shares are trading connected nan little extremity of nan range, conscionable into nan adjacent worth range.

TXN Fair Value Estimate Based connected Historical P/E Range

TXN Fair Value Estimate Based connected Historical P/E Range (Portfolio Insight)

Dividends And Buybacks

This institution has provided investors pinch important dividend maturation and stock repurchases complete nan years. Earnings maturation tin beryllium helped done repurchases arsenic shares outstanding are decreased. They've consistently been buying backmost shares, and that includes nan latest quarter, wherever they repurchased $848 million.

This has led to a worldly diminution successful nan full magnitude of shares outstanding, truthful they aren't conscionable going to screen executive compensation. They've had a existent effect connected nan use of shareholders.

ChartData by YCharts

That's not nan only measurement they return superior backmost to shareholders, arsenic they salary a competitory and increasing dividend. The latest dividend summation past twelvemonth of 7.8% was slower but still helped combat inflation's antagonistic effects connected purchasing power.

Historically, they had been aggressively raising their dividend pinch a 10-year CAGR of 20.19%. That type of maturation mightiness not return successful nan adjacent respective years arsenic they activity done nan short-term uncertainty of nan wide economical picture.

TXN Dividend And Payout Ratio

TXN Dividend And Payout Ratio (Portfolio Insight)

The payout ratio has lingered astir 50 to 60% for nan past astir 10 years contempt nan fierce raises - which intends they were backed by net growth. With nan net outlook astatine nan moment, it would mean that they spell person to a 65% payout ratio. However, that should quickly reverse and trim backmost down erstwhile nan anticipated net maturation resumes.


Overall, Texas Instruments is simply a well-rounded finance that offers maturation potential, income and a reasonable valuation. They person to activity done an uncertain system conscionable arsenic immoderate different institution does for now, but successful nan coming years, maturation is still anticipated. Additionally, nan company's dividend output of 2.74% provides a dependable watercourse of income for investors. Along pinch net maturation successful nan future, nan income should proceed to turn arsenic good pinch dividend increases.

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Editor: Naga

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