Peak Bond Yields To Signal Peak DXY And Bottom In Metals And Miners (Technical Analysis)

DuxX/iStock via Getty Images

By David Brady

Bonds/TLT

October 24 was nan time TLT bottomed astatine 91.50 connected a closing basis, 90.95 intraday. The aforesaid day, nan 10Y closed astatine a highest of 4.23% aft closing astatine 4.33% connected an intraday ground nan day before.

Focusing connected nan closing prices, I judge we’re successful an A-B-C correction from nan highest astatine ~109 connected December 7. Waves A and B person been completed and now we’re heading down successful activity C. A modular activity C = activity A retracement signals nan bottommost successful TLT astatine ~98.72 connected a closing ground (~98.65 connected an intraday basis). By contrast, this is astir 4.11% successful nan 10Y aliases lower.

The regular RSI successful TLT is heading towards an utmost oversold level of 30. We whitethorn moreover get a affirmative divergence erstwhile it bottoms.

The MACD Histogram has been trending down successful nan short-term, but having travel disconnected its lowest level since March 2020, nan set-up is intelligibly location for a positively divergent little low.

The MACD Line is apt to proceed its inclination lower, but nan play MACD Line beneath negates this because it is intelligibly heading higher, confirming nan full thesis of little yields ahead.

In fact, nan RSI and some MACDs are coming disconnected their lowest levels connected grounds successful TLT, going backmost to TLT’s inception successful 2002, pinch plentifulness of room connected nan upside.

In summary, TLT could spell a small little and nan 10Y output a small higher, supporting nan DXY, earlier they each caput successful nan other guidance very, very soon. Best guess, nan move originates successful nan first half of March.

This would coincide pinch bottoms crossed nan analyzable successful precious metals and miners, if not before.

As always, a banal marketplace clang aliases immoderate different exogenous astonishment are nan only caveats, but based connected nan information successful hand, Gold, Silver, and nan miners are getting fresh for blast off!

Original Post

Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

Established successful February 2008, Sprott Money Ltd. is simply a starring precious metals wholesale, organization and unit trader trading gold, metallic and platinum bars, coins and wafers online and complete nan phone. We connection competitory precious metals storage, IRA, and RRSP services, arsenic good arsenic a broad news site.Sprott Money Ltd. is simply a privately held institution owned by Eric Sprott and operated by Larisa Sprott.