OPEC Update, February 17, 2023

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A impermanent station by D Coyne

The OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) for February 2023 was published recently. The past period reported successful astir of nan OPEC charts that travel is January 2023 and output reported for OPEC nations is crude lipid output successful thousands of barrels per time (kb/d).

In astir of nan OPEC charts that travel nan bluish statement is monthly output and nan reddish statement is nan centered twelve-month mean (CTMA) output.

OPEC crude output was revised little successful December 2022 by 45 kb/d compared to past month’s study and November 2022 OPEC crude output was revised little by 16 kb/d.

OPEC output has accrued by 797 kb/d since January 2022, from 28079 kb/d to 28876 kb/d successful January 2023. When nan World was astatine its centered twelve-month mean highest for C+C output successful August 2018, OPEC crude output was 31237 kb/d (as shown connected nan chart), January 2023 OPEC crude output was 2361 kb/d beneath that level.

In nan floor plan below, we person Russian C + C and OPEC crude lipid output. The centered 12-month mean (CTMA) of output for OPEC 13 crude and Russian C+C was 42443 kb/d successful August 2018 erstwhile World C+C output was astatine its centered 12 period mean peak, output for Russia and OPEC was 2735 kb/d beneath nan August 2018 CTMA astatine 39698 kb/d successful January 2023. In nan past 12 months, OPEC and Russian output has accrued by 617 kb/d from 39081 kb/d successful January 2022.

Based connected OPEC estimates, World Oil Supply (all liquids) was 101.7 Mb/d successful January 2023 10.8 Mb/d higher than output successful February 2021, OPEC crude lipid output accrued by 4 Mb/d complete nan aforesaid 23-month period.

OPEC expects request for OPEC crude to beryllium 29.42 Mb/d connected mean successful 2023, this is akin to OPEC crude output of 29.41 Mb/d for 2022Q3. If nan OPEC estimate is correct, past lipid prices whitethorn beryllium reasonably subdued successful 2023, possibly remaining successful nan $80 to $90/bo scope for Brent crude ($75 to $85/bo for WTI).

OECD lipid stocks stay adjacent nan debased constituent since 2009Q1 astatine astir 86 days of guardant consumption. Based connected OPEC estimates of World proviso and request nan 2022 year-end level of World stocks is higher than year-end 2018 by astir 398 cardinal barrels.

This would beryllium astir 4 days of guardant depletion higher World banal levels than year-end 2018 for year-end 2022. This is nan logic that OPEC has trim output since nan 3rd 4th of 2022.

OPEC estimates that US tight lipid output will summation by astir 750 kb/d successful 2023 (when we comparison mean yearly 2022 output pinch mean yearly 2023 tight lipid output. Most of nan summation (620 kb/d) will travel from accrued Permian basin output.

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Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.

Ron Patterson is simply a retired Computer Engineer. He spent 5 years successful Saudi Arabia moving for Saudi ARAMCO. He has followed nan highest lipid communicative since 2000. Ron started blogging connected highest lipid successful 2013. His web site, PeakOilBarrel.com is 1 of nan astir followed blogs connected nan subject. Ron's liking are geology, biology, paleontology, and ecology. His hobbies are blogging and kayak sailing. Ron is now retired and turned complete nan management of nan tract to Dennis Coyne. Ron is still an progressive subordinate connected nan tract and guests now supply timely posts.