Newmark Group, Inc. (NMRK) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Newmark Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:NMRK) Q4 2022 Results Conference Call February 16, 2023 10:00 AM ET

Company Participants

Jason McGruder - Head of Investor Relations

Barry Gosin - Chief Execuive Officer

Mike Rispoli - Chief Financial Officer

Lou Alvarado - Chief Revenue Officer

Jeff Day - Chief Strategy Officer

Conference Call Participants

Chandni Luthra - Goldman Sachs

Alexander Goldfarb - Piper Sandler

Jade Rahmani - KBW

Patrick O'Shaughnessy - Raymond James

Operator

Greetings, invited to nan Newmark Group Fourth Quarter 2022 Financial Results. This clip each participants are successful a listen-only mode. A question-and-answer convention will travel nan general presentation. [Operator Instructions] Please statement this convention is being recorded.

At this time, I’ll now move nan convention complete to Jason McGruder, Head of Investor Relations. Mr. McGruder, you whitethorn now begin.

Jason McGruder

Thank you, operator, bully morning. Newmark issued its 4th fourth 2022 financial results property merchandise and a position summarizing these results this morning. The results provided connected today's telephone comparison only to nan 3 months ending December 31, 2022 pinch nan twelvemonth earlier period, unless different stated.

We will beryllium referring to our results connected this telephone only connected a non-GAAP basis, unless different stated. These non-GAAP position see adjusted net and adjusted EBITDA. Please spot nan conception successful today's property merchandise for nan complete and/or updated definitions of immoderate non-GAAP terms, reconciliation of these items to nan corresponding GAAP results and how, erstwhile and why guidance uses them. More accusation pinch respect to our GAAP and non-GAAP results is disposable connected our website successful today's property release, nan supplemental Excel tables and nan quarterly results presentation.

Unless different stated immoderate figures pinch respect to rate travel from operations discussed connected today's telephone mention to nett rate provided by operating activities, excluding indebtedness origination and sales, and besides excludes the effect of nan 2021 Equity Event. Cash from nan business pinch nan aforesaid rate travel metric by excluding worker loans for producers.

The outlook discussed connected today's telephone assumes nary further stock repurchases, worldly acquisitions stock repurchases are meaningful changes successful nan Company banal price. These expectations are taxable to alteration based connected various macroeconomic, social, political, and different factors. While our 2025 aliases different log driven financial and operational targets do presume acquisitions, they are besides taxable to alteration for nan aforesaid reason. None of our semipermanent targets aliases goals should considered general guidance.

I besides punctual you that nan accusation connected this telephone astir our business that are non-historical facts, guardant looking statements wrong nan meaning of Section 27-A of Securities Act of 1933 arsenic amended and Section 21-E of nan Securities Exchange Act 1934 arsenic amended. Such statements impact risks and uncertainties. Except arsenic required by law, Newmark undertakes nary responsibility to update immoderate forward-looking statements. For a complete chat of further risks and uncertainties which could origin existent results to disagree from those contained successful forward-looking statements, spot Newmark's Securities and Exchange Commission filings, including, but not constricted to, nan consequence factors group distant successful nan astir caller 10-K, 10-Q aliases 8-K filings, which are incorporated by reference.

I'm now happy to move nan telephone complete to our host, Barry Gosin, Chief Executive Officer of Newmark Group, Inc.

Barry Gosin

Good greeting and convey you for joining us. With maine coming are Newmark's Chief Financial Officer, Mike Rispoli; ourChief Revenue Officer, Lou Alvarado; and our Chief Strategy Officer, Jeff Day. For nan past decade, Newmark has strived to go nan Company pinch nan top talent successful nan industry. Our near-term objectives see becoming number 1 successful superior markets successful nan United States.

Yesterday, we took a awesome measurement towards this extremity by adding nan industry's apical superior markets team, led by Doug Harmon and Adam Spies, who are based successful New York, nan largest existent property marketplace successful nan world. We person an unthinkable operation of nan apical strategists and advisors together pinch bonzer section expertise. This has led to complete a decade of beardown maturation and becoming a apical commercialized existent property services level successful nan US.

During nan 4th quarter, liking rates roseate astatine nan fastest gait successful complete 30 years. This led to challenging marketplace conditions, but besides has created an opportunity for Newmark to solidify its position arsenic nan level of prime for nan existent property industry's apical professionals. We judge nan existent marketplace dislocation, coupled pinch our beardown financial position, is creating opportunities for america to prosecute apical talent and get companies astatine charismatic valuations.

As we person seen pinch past downturns and consequent recoveries, superior marketplace leads nan rebound. Once nan markets and nan Fed are aligned, we expect pent up request drives importantly higher manufacture volumes. Historically, our finance income and indebtedness businesses person had a multiplier effect, which drives outside's maturation crossed Newmar. When activity rebounds, we expect our marketplace stock revenues and net to materially outperform nan industry.

While nan macroeconomic situation whitethorn beryllium challenging successful nan short term, we stay excited astir our marketplace position and our future. Our professionals are actively assisting clients arsenic they navigate nan existent environment, restructure their portfolios, and redesign their workplaces. On nan investor side, we are advising our clients connected equity recapitalization, indebtedness financing, and repurposing underutilized properties, including conversion into multi-family, life science, industrial, and different uses.

We besides expect nan increasing request for hybrid activity environments to create opportunities for consulting and our elastic workspace business. As an example, we precocious arranged nan waste and financing of 25 Water Street, a 1.1 cardinal quadrate ft conversion to multi-family of an office, agency building successful New York City. This transaction represents 1 of nan largest ever conversions successful nan United States.

The agelong word fundamentals of commercialized existent property remains beardown pinch closed extremity costs alone, having astir $436 cardinal of world superior waiting to beryllium deployed. More than $2.5 trillion of U.S. commercialized and multi-family indebtedness maturing complete nan adjacent 5 years, and nan continuing secular inclination towards outsourcing of existent property services to companies for illustration Newmark.

With that, I'm happy to move nan telephone complete to Mike.

Mike Rispoli

Thank you, Barry, and bully morning. Our full revenues were $607.3 million, down 38.3% owed to little industry-wide transaction activity, peculiarly successful superior markets wherever U.S. finance income were down 62% and indebtedness originations were down 54%. In leasing, business and unit were agleam spots, surpassing pre pandemic levels for nan year.

However, agency remains challenging pinch CoStar reporting a 20% diminution successful U.S. agency leasing activity during nan 4th quarter. Total expenses of $497.1 cardinal were 31% lower, mostly owed to nan adaptable quality of our expenses. We are up of schedule pinch respect to our $50 cardinal annualized fixed costs savings target, and expect to recognize astatine slightest $35 cardinal during 2023.

Turning to earnings, our 4th fourth results comparison to grounds 4th fourth 2021 earnings, creating a difficult year-over-year comparison. Adjusted EBITDA was $102.2 cardinal compared pinch $225.4 million. This consequence mostly reflects nan melodramatic emergence successful liking rates connected our higher separator superior markets business. Our EPS was $0.32 compared pinch $0.65. We repurchased 1.7 cardinal shares astatine an mean of $8 per stock and reduced our weighted mean stock count to 236.3 cardinal shares, down 7.1%. Our afloat diluted stock count is now somewhat beneath twelvemonth extremity 2017.

Over nan past fewer years, we person returned $792 cardinal to shareholders done stock repurchases and redemptions. In addition, we person returned $38.8 cardinal successful dividends and aft taxation distributions. We expect to proceed returning superior to shareholders, though our near-term complaint of stock repurchases will decline. This is owed to nan existent marketplace dislocation, which is providing america pinch high-quality opportunities to prosecute nan industry's champion talent and acquired companies astatine charismatic valuations.

Moving to nan equilibrium sheet. We ended nan twelvemonth pinch $233 cardinal of rate and rate equivalents. The alteration successful rate from a twelvemonth earlier reflects rate flows from operations of $261.5 cardinal and proceeds from nan waste of our remaining NASDAQ shares, offset by $294.8 cardinal of stock repurchases, rate utilized for acquisitions of $64.2 cardinal and normal movements successful moving capital. We stay successful a beardown financial position pinch nett leverage astatine 0.6 times. Our rate and rate equivalents expected rate travel procreation and $600 cardinal revolving in installments statement provides america pinch complete $1 cardinal of disposable capital.

Turning to 2023 guidance. We expect full revenues of betwixt $2.5 cardinal and $2.7 cardinal compared pinch $2.7055 billion. We expect coagulated interest maturation crossed our suite of guidance services and indebtedness servicing businesses. This guidance besides reflects reduced U.S. transaction volumes successful nan first half of 2023 and improvements thereafter. We expect adjusted EBITDA of betwixt $425 cardinal and $510 cardinal versus $510.7 million.

We expect nan taxation complaint for adjusted net betwixt 14% and 17% and weighted mean stock count to beryllium level to down 1%. You will besides statement that, we included guidance for nan first 4th of 2023 successful our property release. While we do not usually supply quarterly guidance, we thought it was important to see this information, fixed nan macroeconomic conditions, which are expected to dampen manufacture volumes done nan first half of 2023.

And pinch that, I would for illustration to unfastened nan telephone for questions.

Question-And-Answer Session

Operator

Thank you. At this time, we will beryllium conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] And our first mobility coming comes from statement of Chandni Luthra pinch Goldman Sachs. Please proceed pinch your question.

Chandni Luthra

Very adjuvant connected nan guidance and nan first 4th guidance arsenic well, but could you possibly talk a small spot astir really do you deliberation different segments of nan business would execute arsenic you deliberation astir nan wide gross guidance? Especially, if there's a measurement to parse retired first half successful nan 2nd half, and thief america understand what benignant of betterment are you embedding successful nan backmost half for leasing and for superior markets?

Barry Gosin

Sure. I think, we talked a small spot astir this past 4th and we had really put a hypothetical exemplary into our net materials. And if you announcement nan guidance we gave for 2023 is simply a small spot amended than that hypothetical model.

Certainly, we still proceed to judge our guidance business will turn successful nan debased to mid-teens. And our transactional businesses surely down but little down for nan leasing business, and much down for nan superior markets business finance income successful particular.

You could spot our guidance for nan first 4th is down. We would expect that each of these businesses would incrementally amended arsenic we spell done nan twelvemonth pinch nan 3rd and 4th fourth being a spot stronger arsenic liking rates benignant of settee and transaction activity comes backmost successful nan superior markets world.

Chandni Luthra

Very helpful. Thank you. And I'd for illustration to pivot a small spot to nan hirings that you've made recently. So you've evidently mentioned conscionable moments agone that you expect to propulsion backmost a small spot connected stock repurchase astatine slightest compared to 2022 arsenic you attraction connected hiring and acquisitions perchance fixed nan opportunity successful those items. What are nan gaps that are near to beryllium filled arsenic you deliberation astir building a very beardown musculus wrong superior markets? And really do you deliberation astir benignant of wrong nan brokerage business? How do you deliberation astir different segments aliases geographies? Help america understand that please.

Barry Gosin

So, nan basal instauration of our business is built astir talent, nan champion talent, successful each sector, successful each vertical, successful each geography. So, we person activity to do and we person achromatic abstraction successful galore places, but it now becomes arsenic nan much talent that we bring connected board, nan much we elevate our brand, nan much apical professionals want to beryllium here. It helps america everywhere. It each -- not conscionable superior markets, but it helps successful leasing.

The follow-on business to awesome and talented professionals is -- successful superior markets there's leasing agencies that follow, there's spot guidance that follows. There's servicing business that follows. There's task guidance that follows each that. It each has a multiplier effect. And nan aforesaid point goes successful nan tenant rep and nan multi-market tenant rep business. If you prosecute awesome people, you do awesome things, and each of nan different businesses that we build around, it will beryllium better.

That whitethorn beryllium much recurring revenue, because we person visibility and an opportunity to penetrate deeper into nan markets that those opportunities exist, because of our superior markets, and because of our delivering awesome tenants and nan galore things that we do, which is provided by nan underlying instauration of nan business is getting a talent premium that we expect. And that is really nan plan.

Operator

Our adjacent mobility comes from nan statement of Alexander Goldfarb pinch Piper Sandler. Please proceed pinch your question.

Alexander Goldfarb

And decidedly rather nan header that you guys made past nighttime aft nan close. The first mobility is benignant of continuing connected that, obviously, I'm judge that Adam and Doug don't travel cheap, but I cognize that you are building for nan agelong term. You've done a very bully occupation building retired a cross, but you're besides a nationalist company. So, you're benignant of balancing nan agelong word benefits to caller marketplace and nan level of building up successful nan different verticals versus you're a nationalist company.

And obviously, correct now, successful nan existent environment, we each cognize that it's not a awesome time, but evidently adjacent twelvemonth and guardant group expect paybacks. So, erstwhile personification sees nan header of Adam and Doug coming connected board, really do they deliberation astir nan payback connected that? Is it benignant of nan normal trajectory? Or will this return longer to gain a return that we'll spot to nan bottommost statement conscionable because of immoderate nan costs of hiring was?

Barry Gosin

Alex, we underwrite each acquisition to beryllium profitable and to get america nan return that we desired returns. So, there's a batch of mythology retired there. People don't move for money. That's not, because it's moreover anyplace because immoderate patient would prosecute awesome talent if they could get nan awesome talent. But erstwhile you build a instauration for illustration we've built, we really we're surely much charismatic for them. So, I deliberation everything we do is astir being a imaginative connected its own, but it besides gives america nan expertise to pull different talent for little money because this is wherever they want to beryllium because nan money upfront is not why group move. It conscionable isn't.

Alexander Goldfarb

And past nan 2nd question, Barry is, we conscionable went done an unthinkable decade of transaction activity, compressing headdress rates, thoroughfare retail, trading astatine crazy prices. Clearly, we're now experiencing higher liking rates and repricing of definite plus classes. Based connected your tenure complete your years and decades of nan existent property market, really do you envision nan adjacent transaction rhythm to be? Do you deliberation it will beryllium benignant of what we had before? Maybe conscionable springiness america immoderate position because a batch of america person only known compressing headdress rates and little and little liking rates versus higher liking rates successful changing superior markets. So possibly immoderate position connected what you deliberation nan betterment will look like.

Barry Gosin

Well, I've been done 5 cycles. What's absorbing is, we recovered -- what we recovered retired successful nan pandemic, which is if you look backmost astatine our performance. In '19, we utilized this strategy of hiring awesome talent and we built up our multi and that nan marketplace was comparatively good. And past successful nan pandemic, cycles are much knowable than a pandemic. We for illustration everybody were put connected our heels a small spot successful knowing really heavy this is, what this is, really agelong will it last?

So, we didn't hire, and what we recovered is successful erstwhile nan pandemic resided and group were backmost to work, we crushed it. All of those, each of those investments successful '19 paid disconnected successful spades. We came retired for illustration a bat retired of hell. So what we realized is that, you person to support hiring talent, increasing nan talent base. It will beryllium beneficial to nan platform, and we will outperform nan market. Now present we are successful what's measurement much knowable arsenic a cycle.

Yes, location are nuances to each cycle. There is fed induced cycles, location is proviso request cycles, location is simply a big of things, location is .com bubble rhythm successful 2000 and nan RTC slope situation successful '90. They each person a different taste, a different makeup. But we cognize that nan 1 point that each cycles person successful communal is they end. And successful this case, nan rhythm begins, truthful it's a benignant of a reset. If headdress rates spell up 300 ground points aliases 200 to 300 ground points, liking rates spell up 300 ground points. That we are successful nan business arsenic an intermediary, prices reset, group waste spot and past it starts complete again.

There are different things that effect nan purchasing of assets. Inflation will ne'er spell away. So wherever you person a proviso request constrained market, you build caller product. It's much intensive. So you request a amended return. You request higher rents. And truthful rents ever complete nan agelong play of clip proceed to spell up. So moreover successful a marketplace that gets reset, it's not only headdress complaint compression, it's proviso demand. It's mobility and look -- whether it's a debased taxation state, attracting tons of caller population.

There is ever things that effect request and cycles. And we are successful a bully place. At nan moment, transactions are down. At nan moment, we mostly do larger transactions, which are impacted much greatly by indebtedness frost up successful nan market. So we are incredibly encouraged to proceed leaning guardant and doing what we person done because we cognize it's going to output a amended result.

Operator

The adjacent mobility comes from nan statement of Jade Rahmani pinch KBW. Please proceed pinch your questions.

Jade Rahmani

Thank you very much. There is starting to beryllium a fewer signs of improving liquidity successful nan market. Not judge really sustainable it is, but wondering connected your broadside from immoderate of your apical clients, nan largest, astir organization clients. Are you seeing immoderate greenish shoots? Are you seeing immoderate betterment successful tone?

Jeff Day

Hi, Jade. This is Jeff. We really conscionable successful nan past 30 days aliases so, person seen investors progressively progressive conscionable 1 anecdote. We had spot connected nan market. In Texas, we had 88 contracts signed. We had 33 offers, 15 champion successful finals. So, nan first measurement present evidently is group consenting to prosecute successful transactions. The spot did waste for little than nan proprietor wanted to waste it for. But we are starting to spot group willing successful transacting and evaluating wherever nan value constituent is which is simply a amended spot than wherever we were astatine nan extremity of nan quarter.

Jade Rahmani

Thank you very much. Go ahead.

Lou Alvarado

Hey, Jade, this is Lou. On nan off-premise, business and unit sector, I mean, we person decidedly seen much activity arsenic acold arsenic group engaging and understand a batch of BOVs, right? We're really trying to understand wherever nan marketplace is successful bid to position themselves and find what's nan champion timing for them to go. There's decidedly going to beryllium activity arsenic we spot nan fed slow down, group are getting much comfortable arsenic to wherever things are going to beryllium truthful that they tin make these decisions and deed nan marketplace and hole -- and are preparing astatine this time.

Jade Rahmani

Thank you very much. The target to beryllium nan number 1 superior markets institution successful nan space. Do you request ample deals to travel backmost to make that happen? Can you conscionable talk to nan scope of nan business? Maybe springiness immoderate colour astir really it stratifies by woody size, erstwhile we look astatine personification for illustration a CBRE. They're besides very large successful nan ample woody space, truthful to really outtake them. Do you request nan ample transactions to travel back?

Barry Gosin

Look, we'll play successful nan backstage clients smaller deals. We are -- we person a strategy for that. I deliberation erstwhile you're owed nan large deals it's overmuch much charismatic for moreover nan backstage customer guys that do smaller deals. So we're going to play up and down nan levels of transaction. But erstwhile you -- if you commencement pinch nan large and create nan instauration and you elevate nan brand, it's bully successful each sides, but we afloat expect to do mini deals arsenic well. It's besides affordable and smaller deals successful nan multi abstraction is besides a bully spot to beryllium arsenic well. So, we'll beryllium successful each sides of that.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] The adjacent mobility comes from nan statement of Patrick O'Shaughnessy pinch Raymond James. Please proceed pinch your question.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Maybe a mobility for Jeff. Jeff, nan GSE did not lend up to their caps successful 2022. Do you person a consciousness for why that was nan case, and arsenic you look to 2023, do you deliberation they'll get person to nan caps?

Jeff Day

The GSEs person seen an improvement which is progressively focused connected what they telephone their ngo business, which is nan affordable business, mini loans, targeted affordable, et cetera. And so, arsenic they are measured and arsenic FHFA has changed really their affordability is measured, which utilized to beryllium by units, but now it's by percent of production. The unit to deed their caps each twelvemonth is not nan aforesaid arsenic it was historically.

So, what I would expect is to spot a flimsy shift, which we already saw past year, towards a greater attraction connected affordability. And we would expect to beryllium somewhat countercyclical truthful that arsenic different indebtedness superior sources are retired of nan marketplace nan GSEs capable nan gap. When indebtedness superior is plentiful, past we would expect nan GSEs to backmost disconnected a small bit. And that's what we saw past year. So arsenic it relates to this year, peculiarly pinch liking rates, I would expect them to capable nan gaps and I would expect them to beryllium location adjacent to their caps.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

Great. That's helpful, convey you. And past Barry, you indicated that brokers don't move to Newmark because of nan upfront signing bonus. Does that connote that you are offering nan aforesaid upfront rate arsenic wherever they're leaving aliases benignant of what are nan implications of that statement?

Barry Gosin

We don't connection immoderate much money than anybody else. And successful immoderate places person to connection much because of nan quality of nan platform. So, we don't judge group take Newmark because of nan money.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

And past possibly conscionable a -- spell ahead.

Barry Gosin

I was going to adhd remember, we usage accommodation of rate and equity and our equity is forfeitable astatine nan end. And we person agelong word contracts that we motion pinch our apical producers. So, nan measurement we do it, we deliberation is simply a small spot differentiated and a small spot amended successful nan marketplace and it builds a marque complete a agelong play of time.

Patrick O'Shaughnessy

And past possibly an adjacent follow-up to that, you indicated that marketplace dislocations do benignant of thin to stimulate immoderate charismatic hiring opportunities. Why is that nan case? Does it conscionable group go little satisfied pinch their existing employer successful dislocated marketplace situations? Or what would benignant of origin them to possibly look for greener pastures?

Mike Rispoli

I don't cognize that it makes them much unhappy pinch their existing. Usually that exists prior, but erstwhile you are immersed successful a very progressive market, it's very difficult to prime your caput up and return nan clip to make a move. And erstwhile location is simply a slowdown, it's a infinitesimal successful clip erstwhile group tin make a move. And that's -- that usually occurs successful a clip for illustration this erstwhile location is much abstraction betwixt transactions.

Barry Gosin

I deliberation a batch of group are besides look and say, look arsenic nan market's going to recover, who do I want my teammates to beryllium truthful I tin seizure much marketplace stock and make much money complete nan play of nan contract? And that's erstwhile they look and say, well, wherever do I really want to beryllium and who do I really want to beryllium partnering pinch successful bid to beryllium much successful? And that's 1 of nan things that we do. We make group better. We make group person higher accumulation than they had wherever they were before. And that's really why they look to subordinate america erstwhile they're -- erstwhile these times are for illustration these are happening.

Operator

The adjacent mobility is follow-up from nan statement of Jade Rahmani pinch KBW. Please proceed pinch your question.

Jade Rahmani

Just a fewer method questions. As a consequence of nan Cushman hires, do you expect a worldly summation successful nan stock relationship and erstwhile would we commencement seeing that?

Mike Rispoli

So, I deliberation we guided our stock relationship to beryllium flattened down 1% for '23 compared to '22. Obviously, we've considered each things we cognize astir today, truthful we won't beryllium changing guidance based connected that fact.

Jade Rahmani

On nan adjusted taxation rate, it looked for illustration it came successful beautiful debased for nan 4th quarter. What drove that and what's nan driver of nan debased taxation complaint connected an adjusted ground for 2023?

Mike Rispoli

It's really really elemental little earnings. So, our banal compensation, which is taxation deductible for nan Company came successful astir about nan 7% to 9% scope that we guided to really a small spot beneath for 2022. But connected little earnings, that conscionable drives your taxation complaint down a bit. So, we came successful astir 17% for '22, we're guiding 14% to 17% based connected nan guidance scope for 23.

Mike Rispoli

What do you expect for banal based compensation for 2023?

Barry Gosin

It's wrong nan aforesaid scope of 7% to 9% of our commissionable revenues. So I deliberation it came successful astir $120 cardinal for 2022. You tin do nan math. It will beryllium astir successful that range, possibly a small spot more, a small spot less, but thing materially different.

Jade Rahmani

And connected commissionable revenues, fundamentally we should return finance sales, superior markets, we should exclude MSR gains. And past should we besides exclude guidance services?

Mike Rispoli

Yes. The only portion of guidance services that falls into that is nan valuation business, because they are connected a committee basis. But different than that, it's leasing, its superior markets, which is income and debt, arsenic you said without nan MSR successful valuation.

Jade Rahmani

Okay. And past is location worker indebtedness amortization disbursal moving done nan P&L?

Mike Rispoli

Yes. It's moving done GAAP and non-GAAP. So it's already reflected successful our numbers.

Jade Rahmani

What's nan magnitude of that?

Mike Rispoli

I'm not judge we person disclosed that, but possibly arsenic we hole nan 10-K, we will return a look and spot if it's successful location aliases if we tin adhd thing that would beryllium adjuvant to you.

Operator

Thank you. We person reached nan extremity of nan question-and-answer session. I'll now move nan telephone complete to Mr. Barry Gosin, Chief Executive Officer for closing remarks.

Barry Gosin

Thank you each for joining america today. I americium highly excited astir nan Company's early and look guardant to updating you connected nan adjacent quarterly call. So convey you.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes today's conference. You whitethorn disconnect your lines astatine this time. Thank you for your participation.