MDA Breakout Stocks Week 8 - February 2023: High-Frequency Gainers To Give You An Edge

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The Weekly Breakout Forecast continues my doctoral research analysis connected MDA breakout selections complete much than 8 years. This precocious wave breakout subset of nan different portfolios I regularly analyse has now reached 299 weeks of nationalist selections arsenic portion of this ongoing unrecorded forward-testing research. The wave of 10%+ returns successful a week is averaging complete 4x nan wide marketplace averages successful nan past 6+ years.

In 2017, nan sample size began pinch 12 stocks, past 8 stocks successful 2018, and astatine members' petition since 2020, I now make only 4 selections each week. In summation 2 Dow 30 picks are provided utilizing nan MDA methodology, but I highly urge nan monthly Growth & Dividend mega headdress breakout portfolios if you are looking for larger headdress selections beyond only 30 Dow stocks.

As agelong word investors know, you tin compound $10,000 into $1 cardinal pinch 10% yearly returns successful little than 50 years. This exemplary serves to summation nan complaint of 10% breakouts into 52 play intervals alternatively of years. In 2022, nan worst marketplace since 2008: 113 MDA picks gained complete 5%, 52 picks complete 10%, 22 picks complete 15%, and 13 picks complete 20% successful little than week.

2023 Market Outlook

My strategy for 2023 is to enactment bearish for nan February cyclical shape arsenic discussed successful my January forecast articles. Short word we are seeing an early apical successful bonds and China stocks aft beardown January gains. The early antagonistic trial awesome has besides begun for an early informing awesome of marketplace downturns. The charismatic antagonistic Momentum Gauge awesome has not started, but conditions are still declining from nan astir elevated January levels we person seen since nan marketplace highest successful August 2022. Longer word I stay bullish connected China arsenic nan largest system still successful QE and stimulating their markets, while each different awesome economies are successful QT fighting inflation. I scheme to overweight US treasuries/bonds arsenic explained successful nan 2023 method forecast article while remaining cautious connected US stocks pursuing nan gauge signals.

Mid-year 2023 is wherever things whitethorn get absorbing pinch imaginable for a Fed pivot. Dip-buyers will proceed to effort to propulsion this anticipated pivot arena guardant successful clip extending precocious marketplace volatility while nan Fed hikes rates. Mid-year I besides scheme to leverage beardown results from a caller June Russell Reconstitution anomaly we recovered past twelvemonth that is actively tracked connected nan dashboard: FTSE Russell Reconstitution Anomaly Study - Strong +22.7% Difference After 5 Months

The schedule of reports and forecast articles for 2023 are present for your benefit.

Momentum Gauges Dashboard ahead of Week 8

All nan Daily Momentum Gauges proceed affirmative this week including monthly gauges. However nan gauges proceed to diminution from highest January levels astatine nan highest affirmative recorded levels since August 2022 that corresponded pinch nan past anterior marketplace peak. Sector gauges are besides declining pinch Energy negative.

Momentum Gauge Dashboard

Daily Momentum Gauges proceed affirmative but declining from nan highest levels since past August. Strong similarities to nan August marketplace apical proceed to return style arsenic illustrated below. The antagonistic early trial awesome has been progressive since Feb. 3rd pinch rising antagonistic values and declines successful nan momentum gauge differences arsenic nan gauges move person to an charismatic antagonistic signal. This usually precedes larger marketplace downturns for illustration we saw past year.

Daily Momentum Gauges

Weekly Breakout Returns

The 2 play breakout portfolios are shown beneath pinch existent 2023 returns. The ongoing title betwixt nan Bounce/Lag Momentum exemplary (from Prof Grant Henning, PhD Statistics) and MDA Breakout picks (from JD Henning, PhD Finance) are shown beneath pinch / without utilizing nan Momentum Gauge trading signal. The per-week returns equalize nan comparison wherever location were only 16 affirmative trading weeks past twelvemonth utilizing nan MDA trading signal (negative values beneath 40).

Weekly MDA and Bounce/Lag returns

For 2022, nan worst marketplace since 2008: 113 MDA picks gained complete 5%, 52 picks complete 10%, 22 picks complete 15%, and 13 picks complete 20% successful little than week. These are statistically important precocious wave breakout results contempt galore shortened vacation weeks.

V&M Multibagger List

While not nan intent of my model, longer word (using nan trading video successful FAQ #20) galore of these selections whitethorn subordinate nan V&M Multibagger database now astatine 119 play picks pinch complete 100%+ gains, 52 picks complete 200%+, 19 picks complete 500%+ and 9 play picks pinch complete 1000%+ gains since January 2019 specified as:

  • Celsius Holdings (CELH) +1,917.9%
  • Enphase Energy (ENPH) +1,382.2%
  • Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) +1,096.2%
  • Trillium Therapeutics (TRIL) +1008.7%

More than 450 stocks person gained complete 10% successful little than a week since this MDA testing began successful 2017. Frequency comparison charts are astatine nan extremity of this article. Readers are cautioned that these are highly volatile stocks that whitethorn not beryllium due for achieving your agelong word finance goals: How to Achieve Optimal Asset Allocation

Historical Performance Measurements

Historical MDA Breakout minimal buy/hold (worst case) returns person a compound mean maturation complaint of 30.87% and cumulative minimum returns of +708.19% from 2017. The minimal cumulative returns for 2022 were -0.21%, mean cumulative returns were +67.05%, and nan champion lawsuit cumulative returns were +360.25%. The floor plan reflects nan astir blimpish measurements adding each 52 play return successful an yearly portfolio simulation, though each play action could beryllium compounded weekly.

Annual MDA returns

The Week 8 - 2023 Breakout Stocks for adjacent week are:

The picks for adjacent week dwell of 2 Basic Materials, 1 Healthcare and 1 Energy assemblage stocks. These stocks are measured from merchandise to members successful beforehand each Friday greeting adjacent nan unfastened for nan champion gains. Prior selections whitethorn beryllium doing well, but for investigation purposes I deliberately do not copy selections from nan anterior week. These selections are based connected MDA characteristics from my research, including beardown money flows, affirmative sentiment, and beardown fundamentals -- but readers are cautioned to travel nan Momentum Gauges for nan champion results.

  1. Warrior Met Coal (HCC) - Basic Materials / Coking Coal
  2. ShockWave Medical (SWAV) - Healthcare / Medical Devices

Warrior Met Coal - Basic Materials / Coking Coal

HCC - Warrior Met Coal, Inc. - Stock Price Chart

Price Target: $45.00/share (Analyst Consensus + Technical See my FAQ #20)

(Source: Company Resources)

Warrior Met Coal, Inc. produces and exports non-thermal metallurgical ember for nan alloy industry. It operates 2 underground mines located successful Alabama. The institution sells its metallurgical ember to a customer guidelines of blast furnace alloy producers located chiefly successful Europe, South America, and Asia. It besides sells earthy gas, which is extracted arsenic a byproduct from ember production.

HCC report

ShockWave Medical - Healthcare / Medical Devices

SWAV - ShockWave Medical, Inc. - Stock Price Chart

Price Target: $260.00/share (Analyst Consensus + Technical See my FAQ #20)

(Source: Company Resources)

ShockWave Medical, Inc., a aesculapian instrumentality company, engages successful processing and commercializing intravascular lithotripsy exertion for nan curen of calcified plaque successful patients pinch peripheral vascular, coronary vascular, and bosom valve diseases worldwide. The institution offers M5 catheters for treating above-the-knee peripheral artery illness (PAD); C2 catheters for treating coronary artery disease; and S4 catheters for treating below-the-knee PAD. It serves interventional cardiologists, vascular surgeons, and interventional radiologists done income representatives and income managers, and distributors.

SWAV report

Top Dow 30 Stocks to Watch for Week 8

First, beryllium judge to travel nan Momentum Gauges erstwhile applying nan aforesaid MDA breakout exemplary parameters to only 30 stocks connected nan Dow Index. Second, these selections are made without respect to marketplace headdress aliases nan below-average volatility emblematic of mega-cap stocks that whitethorn nutrient bully results comparative to different Dow 30 stocks. The astir caller picks of play Dow selections successful pairs for nan past 5 weeks:

Symbol Company Current % return from action Week
(MRK) Merck & Co. +2.35%
(WMT) Walmart +2.51%
(PG) Procter & Gamble Company -1.11%
IBM International Business Machines -0.53%
(CVX) Chevron Corp. -11.24%
(CRM) Salesforce Inc. +4.47%
(DIS) Walt Disney Co. +5.69%
(IBM) International Business Machines -4.69%
(HD) Home Depot -4.00%
(CAT) Caterpillar Inc. -4.13%

All caller semipermanent portfolio selections for 2023 person started. See nan banal merchandise articles beneath for much details. So acold galore of nan semipermanent portfolios are importantly beating awesome indices and already achieving double-digit returns.

Long Term Portfolio returns 2023 YTD

If you are looking for a overmuch broader action of ample headdress breakout stocks, I urge these agelong word portfolios. The caller 2023 selections person been released successful nan links beneath to members to commencement nan New Year:

New 2023 Piotroski-Graham enhanced value -

  • New January portfolio +15.31% YTD
  • 2022 January portfolio hit nan S&P 500 by +32.54%

New 2023 Positive Forensic -

  • New January portfolio +12.54% YTD
  • January 2022 Positive Forensic hit S&P 500 by +6.59%

New 2023 Negative Forensic -

  • New January portfolio +18.47% YTD
  • January 2022 Negative Forensic hit S&P 500 by +22.18%

New Growth & Dividend Mega headdress breakouts -

  • New January meg headdress portfolio -2.11% YTD not including dividends
  • January 2022 portfolio hit S&P 500 by +13.91%

These agelong word portfolio selections person importantly outperformed galore awesome hedge costs and each nan hedge money averages since inception.

The Dow picks for adjacent week is:

Coca-Cola (KO)

The Coca-Cola Company is simply a beardown protect assemblage banal pinch precocious 2.93% dividend output arsenic markets participate weakening momentum conditions. Analysts proceed pinch bargain ratings and statement value target of $68.5/share. Inflows are dependable arsenic investors move much to information and distant from power and technology.

Finviz Chart KO

Background connected Momentum Breakout Stocks

As I person documented earlier from my investigation complete nan years, these MDA breakout picks were designed arsenic precocious wave gainers.

These documented precocious wave gains successful little than a week proceed into 2020 astatine rates much than 4 times higher than nan mean banal marketplace returns against comparable stocks pinch a minimum $2/share and $100 cardinal marketplace cap. The enhanced gains from further MDA investigation successful 2020 are some larger and much predominant than successful erstwhile years successful each category. ~ The 2020 MDA Breakout Report Card

The wave percentages stay very akin to returns documented present connected Seeking Alpha since 2017 and astatine rates that greatly transcend nan gains of marketplace returns by 2x and arsenic overmuch arsenic 5x successful nan lawsuit of 5% gains.

MDA Frequency breakout charts

The 2021 and 2020 breakout percentages pinch 4 stocks selected each week.

2021 / 2020 MDA Frequency breakout charts

MDA selections are restricted to stocks supra $2/share, $100M marketplace cap, and greater than 100k avg regular volume. Penny stocks good beneath these minimum levels person been shown to use greatly from nan exemplary but present overmuch much consequence and whitethorn beryllium distorted by inflows from readers selecting nan aforesaid micro-cap stocks.


These stocks proceed nan unrecorded forward-testing of nan breakout action algorithms from my doctoral investigation pinch continuous enhancements complete anterior years. These Weekly Breakout picks dwell of nan shortest long picks of 7 quantitative models I people from apical financial investigation that besides see one-year buy/hold worth stocks. Remember to travel nan Momentum Gauges® successful your investing decisions for nan champion results.

All nan V&M portfolio models hit nan marketplace indices again past twelvemonth pinch accordant outperformance of nan awesome indices. All caller portfolios are successful a beardown commencement to 2023 pinch galore portfolios already successful double-digit returns.

Portfolio Returns YTD 2023

The last portfolio returns for 2022

Annual Returns 2022 V&MBreakouts

All nan very champion to you, enactment safe and patient and person a awesome week of trading!

JD Henning, PhD, MBA, CFE, CAMS

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