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Invitation Homes Inc. (INVH) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Invitation Homes Inc. (NYSE:INVH) Q4 2022 Earnings Conference Call February 16, 2023 11:00 AM ET

Company Participants

Scott McLaughlin - Vice President of Investor Relations

Dallas Tanner - President and Chief Executive Officer

Charles Young - Chief Operating Officer

Ernie Freedman - Chief Financial Officer

Conference Call Participants

Josh Dennerlein - Bank of America

Nicholas Joseph - Citi

Austin Wurschmidt - KeyBanc Capital Markets

Brad Heffern - RBC Capital Markets

Sam Choe - Credit Suisse

Steve Sakwa - Evercore ISI

Juan Sanabria - BMO Capital Markets

Adam Kramer - Morgan Stanley

Chandni Luthra - Goldman Sachs

Keegan Carl - Wolfe Research

Tyler Batory - Oppenheimer

John Pawlowski - Green Street

Dennis McGill - Zelman & Associates

Jade Rahmani - KBW

Barry Lu - Mizuho

Michael Gorman - BTIG

Linda Tsai - Jefferies

Tony Paolone - JPMorgan

Anthony Powell - Barclays

Operator

Greetings, and invited to nan Invitation Homes Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. All participants are successful a listen-only mode astatine this time. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this telephone is being recorded.

At this time, I would for illustration to move nan convention complete to Scott McLaughlin, Vice President of Investor Relations. Sir, please spell ahead.

Scott McLaughlin

Good morning, and welcome. Today, we'll perceive remarks from Dallas Tanner, President and Chief Executive Officer; Charles Young, Chief Operating Officer; and Ernie Freedman, Chief Financial Officer. Following these remarks, we'll behaviour a question-and-answer convention pinch our covering sell-side analysts. [Operator Instructions]

During today's call, we whitethorn reference our 4th fourth 2022 net merchandise and supplemental information. This archive was issued yesterday aft nan marketplace closed and is disposable connected nan Investor Relations conception of our website astatine www.invh.com.

Certain statements we make during this telephone whitethorn see forward-looking statements relating to nan early capacity of our business, financial results, liquidity and capital resources and different nonhistorical statements, which are taxable to risks and uncertainties that could origin existent outcomes aliases results to disagree materially from those indicated. We picture immoderate of these risks and uncertainties successful our 2021 yearly study connected Form 10-K and different filings we make pinch nan SEC from time-to-time. Invitation Homes does not update forward-looking statements and expressly disclaims immoderate responsibility to do so.

We whitethorn besides talk definite non-GAAP financial measures during nan call. You tin find further accusation regarding these non-GAAP measures, including reconciliations to nan astir comparable GAAP measures, successful yesterday's net release.

I'll now move nan telephone complete to Dallas.

Dallas Tanner

Thanks for joining america this morning. I'd for illustration to commencement by thanking each of our teams for their difficult activity past year. Yesterday, we posted 2022 year-over-year halfway FFO maturation of 11.6% and same-store NOI maturation of 9.1%. Strong request for our business continued passim nan year. And contempt immoderate headwinds from ostentation and an evolving regulatory environment, we judge our business continues to guidelines connected coagulated footing.

As you each know, Ernie precocious announced that he'll beryllium stepping down arsenic CFO successful a fewer months. I'd for illustration to convey him for his bonzer imagination and strategical penetration complete nan past 7 years, and I look guardant to celebrating his achievements later this year. At nan aforesaid time, I'm excited for Jon Olsen, who joins america present successful nan room this morning, to lead our finance squad opening successful June. Jon has been portion of Invitation Homes from nan opening pinch heavy engagement successful each of our strategical and financial activities. We expect this to beryllium a seamless transition.

Before turning it complete to Charles and Ernie to supply much specifications astir our 2022 capacity and our expectations for 2023, I wanted to return a fewer moments to talk nan existent lodging situation successful nan United States and really we judge Invitation Homes is good positioned to thief support nan country's lodging needs. It has been reported that nan U.S. needs to adhd much than 13 cardinal lodging units complete nan adjacent 7 years successful bid to accommodate caller family statement and reside nan undersupply of nan past decade.

Today, however, it remains challenging to present caller proviso successful desirable locations, because of authorities and section restriction, arsenic good arsenic labour and worldly shortages. In addition, today's macroeconomic situation of higher ostentation and higher liking rates whitethorn discourage finance successful caller supply. On apical of these proviso pressures, nan largest demographic group, nan millennial generation, is now aging successful nan life shape of needing much abstraction to accommodate their families and their lifestyles. Add to each of that, nan accrued elasticity of galore to activity part-time aliases full-time from home, and we judge request for single-family lodging should stay beardown for galore years to come.

At nan halfway of our business is simply a straightforward yet captious goal. We activity to beryllium a meaningful portion of nan solution for high-quality and elastic lodging options. We supply value homes for lease successful desirable locations pinch entree to awesome schools and employment centers. We connection best-in-class service, allowing residents to attraction connected their lives. And we're proud that we partner pinch 150 nationalist lodging authorities and serving thousands of our residents who participate successful a lodging assistance program, including HUD's lodging prime voucher program.

And we're delivering caller homes to marketplace done our antecedently announced builder relationships. Today, that builder pipeline exceeds 2,300 homes that we expect to present complete nan adjacent fewer years, and our plans are to proceed investing successful caller building successful nan future.

As a reminder, our attack to bringing caller lodging to nan marketplace keeps improvement consequence disconnected of our equilibrium expanse and debar immoderate related G&A burden, while besides allowing america to partner pinch immoderate of nan champion homebuilders successful nan business to prime and bargain caller homes successful awesome locations. We deliberation this attack is simply a existent differentiator and allows america to maximize elasticity and optionality while remaining opportunistic and minimizing risk.

All of this is important because nan deficiency of disposable proviso of single-family lodging and beardown request from those who wish to unrecorded successful a single-family location person made homeownership overmuch much costly today. This proviso and request imbalance is further aggravated by ostentation and elevated liking rates, starring to nan widest dislocation we've seen betwixt nan costs of homeownership and nan costs of leasing since starting this business. We're truthful very proud to supply our residents nan opportunity to unrecorded successful neighborhoods and schoolhouse districts that mightiness not different beryllium accessible astatine a costs that is often importantly much affordable than immoderate different lodging option.

Let maine propulsion connected that drawstring a small spot further. Based connected nan John Burns December data, leasing a location costs astir $900 little each period than owning a location crossed our markets. This intends that leasing location tin prevention a family astir 30% a period connected their lodging costs connected average. These savings are moreover much compelling connected a per quadrate ft ground wherever single-family rental homes presently travel retired arsenic nan astir cost-effective lodging action compared to not only homeownership costs, but besides flat rent.

That being nan case, we judge today's macroeconomic situation and nan existent proviso and request fundamentals make nan Invitation Homes worth proposition compelling for some our residents and our shareholders. This is connected apical of respective differentiators of our business that we person noticed successful nan past.

For residents, these benefits see a precocious renovated, refreshed aliases recently built location successful a desirable location; ProCare, which is our resident work exemplary that provides for accordant interactions pinch our residents passim their clip pinch us; best-in-class exertion devices of nan astir caller illustration being our mobile attraction app, offering residents an moreover much businesslike process to taxable work requests; and a increasing database of resident services designed to elevate their surviving experience.

For our shareholders, we judge location are galore absolute and comparative advantages to nan single-family rental industry, including single-family homes are nan astir liquid existent property assemblage wrong nan United States. There's typically overmuch little turnover successful single-family rental than successful multifamily pinch residents often staying overmuch longer. And there's a agelong way grounds of rent maturation wrong SFR moreover during recessionary periods. With a motion again to nan Burns data, nationalist mean single-family rent maturation has ne'er had a meaningful diminution successful astir 40-years of search that data.

Lastly, we judge location are galore advantages to nan Invitation Homes way, including our hallmark scale; location and ISO markets, overseen by nan champion operators successful nan abstraction arsenic evidenced by our 46.6% cumulative same-store NOI maturation complaint from 2017 to 2022, astir 2,500 ground points greater than nan mean of our residential peers; our beardown equilibrium expanse pinch nary indebtedness coming owed until 2026; and our builder partner maturation pipeline that maximizes elasticity and contributes to caller lodging proviso while besides avoiding large investments successful onshore and a ample G&A load.

In closing, we couldn't beryllium much excited astir our existent estate, our teams and nan underlying fundamentals present successful 2023, a twelvemonth pinch immoderate uncertainty and besides a twelvemonth we judge afloat of opportunity to proceed delivering a premier resident acquisition to anyone who chooses to unrecorded a much elastic and worry-free lifestyle.

With that, I'll walk it connected to Charles, our Chief Operating Officer.

Charles Young

Good morning, everyone. As Dallas mentioned earlier, 2022 is simply a coagulated twelvemonth for us. We judge our results are a reflection of nan work we connection our residents and our capacity successful providing an exceptional leasing experience. This is an ongoing travel that we look guardant to continuing successful 2023. So convey you to each of our associates for your changeless committedness to genuine care.

I'll now locomotion you done our operating results successful much detail. Same-store halfway revenues grew 7.6% year-over-year successful nan 4th quarter. This summation was driven by mean monthly rental complaint maturation of 9.4% and a 16% summation successful different spot income, nett of resident recoveries. Same-store mean occupancy was 97.3% successful nan 4th quarter, down 80 ground points year-over-year arsenic a consequence of higher vacancy owed to accrued turnover.

For nan full-year 2022, our same-store gross grew by 9%. Same-store halfway expenses grew 16.3% year-over-year successful nan 4th quarter. The main driver of this maturation was an 18.3% summation successful spot taxation expense. As indicated a fewer months ago, this summation was anticipated to beryllium outsized owed to a catch-up to our spot taxation accrual successful nan 4th fourth chiefly related to higher spot taxation bills successful our homes successful Florida and Georgia.

For full-year 2022, including this 4th fourth count, spot taxation disbursal grew by 7.8%, while halfway operating disbursal for nan full-year 2022 were up 8.6%. Outside of spot taxes, nan inflationary situation was nan largest contributor to nan higher maturation successful halfway operating expenses.

Following 2 years successful a statement of virtually nary disbursal maturation year-over-year, our anticipation that we will spot immoderate of past year's inflationary unit proceed into 2023. Finishing up pinch our same-store operating results, we reported 4th fourth NOI maturation of 3.7%, which brought our full-year 2022 NOI maturation to 9.1%.

Next, I'll screen leasing trends successful nan 4th fourth of 2022 and January 2023. Same-store blended rent maturation was 9.1% successful nan 4th quarter, which is comprised of renewal rent maturation of 9.9% and caller lease rent maturation of 7.4%. In January 2023, same-store blended rent maturation was 7.4% pinch renewals coming successful astatine 8.7% and caller leases astatine 4.9%. Same-store occupancy successful January was 97.7%, an summation of 40 ground points from our 4th fourth results.

As we anticipated, bad indebtedness was a stronger headwind successful nan 4th fourth than successful nan 3rd quarter, representing 2% of gross rental revenues. California, and much specifically, Southern California continued to knowledgeable outsized bad indebtedness wrong our portfolio. Approximately 40% of our Southern California homes are located wrong Los Angeles County, wherever ordinances proceed to restrict residential lease compliance options.

For nan remainder of our portfolio, we are seeing immoderate markets return to much regular procedures for addressing delinquency, though it's a slower process now than it has been historically successful immoderate of our markets. Across each our markets, we're proud to connection a desirable lodging action and worry-free manner to our residents. In our astir caller resident surveys, we heard that nan request for much abstraction and desirable location of our homes were erstwhile again nan apical 2 reasons why caller residents take to lease from america successful nan 4th quarter.

80% of caller resident surveys bespeak it's important to person a location agency aliases prize room pinch astir half stating they activity from location astatine slightest 2 days a week. In addition, our mean family income for caller residents during 2022 stay patient astatine astir $134,000, representing an income to rent ratio of 5.2 times.

Finally, our residents continued to show precocious restitution pinch nan work our teams are providing arsenic evidenced by our precocious occupancy, debased turnover, mean magnitude of enactment of astir 3 years and beardown resident restitution scores. I widen my acknowledgment to our teams who person helped make this each possible. And I situation our associates to proceed to raise nan barroom present successful 2023.

I'll now move nan telephone complete to Ernie, our Chief Financial Officer.

Ernie Freedman

Thank you, Charles. This morning, I will screen nan pursuing topics: one, equilibrium expanse and superior markets activity; two, financial results for nan 4th quarter; and three, our 2023 guidance, which we introduced successful yesterday's net release.

Since our IPO successful 2017, we person been focused connected reducing our wide leverage, improving our maturity ladder, achieving an investment-grade standing and transitioning to a equilibrium expanse that is capitalized mostly pinch unsecured indebtedness astatine fixed rates. We person made important advancement crossed each of these objectives.

At year-end 2022, nett indebtedness to adjusted EBITDA stood astatine 5.7 times. Our weighted mean maturity was 5.6 years, and erstwhile considering disposable hold options, we person nary indebtedness coming owed until 2026. Over 99% of our indebtedness was fixed complaint aliases swapped to fixed rate. We achieved our investment-grade standing successful nan outpouring of 2021. And astatine year-end 2022, complete 83% of our homes were unencumbered, and 73.7% of our indebtedness was unsecured pinch secured indebtedness representing little than 10% of gross book worth of our existent estate.

As antecedently announced, during nan 4th quarter, we prepaid nan remaining information of our IH 2018-1 securitization utilizing nan delayed tie characteristic of our seven-year unsecured word indebtedness that closed successful June 2022. We ended nan twelvemonth pinch $1.3 cardinal of liquidity from some our undrawn revolver and unrestricted cash.

I'll now screen our 4th fourth and full-year 2022 financial results. Core FFO for nan 4th fourth accrued 10.6% year-over-year to $0.43 per share, and AFFO accrued 9.2% to $0.36 per share. For nan full-year 2022, halfway FFO and AFFO per stock accrued 11.6% and 10.2% to $1.67 and $1.41, respectively, each exceeding nan midpoint of our guidance. Included successful our net release, we provided a span from 2022 halfway FFO per stock to nan midpoint of 2023 halfway FFO per stock guidance.

With regards to our same-store operating metrics, we expect same-store halfway gross maturation successful a scope of 5.25% to 6.25%. Embedded successful our guidance are nan pursuing assumptions: first, somewhat little mean occupancy versus 2022 owed to anticipated higher turnover; and second, elevated bad indebtedness of 25 to 75 ground points higher than 2022.

Next, same-store halfway disbursal growth, which we expect successful nan scope of 7.5% to 9.5%. Included successful this guidance is nan presumption that existent property taxes will summation betwixt 6.5% to 7.5%, an betterment from 2022. We besides expect to spot unit connected turnover, operating and superior expense, owed chiefly to our presumption of higher turnover successful 2023, on pinch our presumption astir ongoing inflationary pressures.

As Charles mentioned, our existent property taxation disbursal successful 2022 was underaccrued for nan first 3 quarters of 2022. So we recorded an outsized catch-up successful nan 4th fourth of 2022. As a result, we expect 2023 same-store halfway disbursal maturation successful nan mid-teens for nan first 4th of 2023 followed by sequential betterment during nan remainder of nan year, resulting successful nan expected scope for nan full-year 2023.

Taken together, this brings our anticipation for same-store NOI maturation to 4.0% to 5.5%. We besides expect full-year 2023 halfway FFO per stock to beryllium successful nan scope of $1.73 to $1.81 and AFFO per stock successful nan scope of $1.43 to $1.51.

As a consequence of this anticipated maturation successful AFFO per stock successful 2023, our Board of Directors has authorized an summation successful our quarterly dividend by 18.2% to $0.26 per share. Our guidance assumes that our 2023 acquisitions will beryllium modest. This includes our first anticipation for on-balance expanse acquisitions of $250 cardinal to $300 cardinal from our builder partners, which we scheme to money done free rate travel and disposition proceeds. It besides includes our anticipation for acquisitions successful our associated ventures of $100 cardinal to $300 million.

Outside of this guidance assumption, our existent acquisition activity will beryllium based connected really charismatic nan buying opportunities are comparative to our costs of superior arsenic nan twelvemonth progresses. With our equilibrium expanse successful fantabulous shape, our ample liquidity providing america pinch plentifulness of barren powder and our associated ventures offering america entree to further capital, we're good positioned pinch nan elasticity to support an opportunistic attack to outer maturation this year.

I'll wrap up by echoing Dallas' and Charles' gratitude to our associates. They continually activity difficult to present beardown results and to respectfully attraction for our residents successful our homes.

As we look ahead, we are assured successful our continued occurrence based connected favorable proviso and request fundamentals, our patient equilibrium sheet, our unwavering committedness to outstanding resident service, our beardown squad and our desire to stay nan premier prime successful location leasing.

With that, operator, please unfastened nan statement for questions.

Question-and-Answer Session

Operator

Thank you. We will now statesman nan question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] We person nan first mobility connected nan telephone lines from Josh Dennerlein of Bank of America. Please spell ahead.

Josh Dennerlein

Yes. Hey guys, acknowledgment for nan question. Just benignant of reasoning astir your AFFO midpoint guideline pinch nan FFO midpoint guide, it looks for illustration it's benignant of 83% of FFO. I deliberation it was 84% for 2022 actuals. What -- it looks for illustration earlier that; it was benignant of moving astatine a smaller gap. Kind of what's driving that, but possibly it would person shrunk fixed little turnover nan past fewer years?

Ernie Freedman

Yes, Josh, this is Ernie. We are seeing -- and Charles talked astir it and alluded to it pinch regards to inflationary pressures connected turnover expenses. And truthful nan quality betwixt FFO and AFFO is going to beryllium our superior replacement spending. We are seeing a small much unit connected nan superior broadside connected some our repairs and attraction expenses arsenic good arsenic connected our move expenses. And we want to make judge astatine nan opening of nan year, we had nan correct magnitude of be aware built into our numbers.

So we tin hopefully group ourselves up for -- we dream to person a bully capacity later successful nan twelvemonth disconnected of that. That's why you've seen complete nan past mates of years, that's changed a bit. We're fundamentally moving person to flattish nett costs to support connected nan OpEx and CapEx mixed for nan past mates of years. But for 2022 and what we're projecting for 2023 is surely a higher summation from inflationary pressures. And specifically successful turnover, we do expect to person precocious -- a small spot higher turnover successful 2023 versus 2022. Maybe arsenic we get retired into 2024 and 2025, you'll spot numbers revert backmost to what you saw successful nan past for america successful position of nan differences betwixt halfway FFO and AFFO.

Josh Dennerlein

Thanks, Ernie. Appreciate that.

Ernie Freedman

Thanks, Josh.

Operator

We now person Nicholas Joseph of Citi. Your statement is open.

Nicholas Joseph

Thank you. I was hoping you tin elaborate a spot much connected nan trends you're seeing successful nan acquisition marketplace successful position of headdress rates and disposable properties. And past what are you proceeding from your JV partners connected their appetite to deploy superior successful this existent acquisition environment?

Dallas Tanner

Yes. Nick, Dallas. Let maine reply your 2nd mobility first, and past I'll talk a small spot astir what we're seeing successful existent time. I deliberation there's plentifulness of appetite pinch our JV partners to proceed to turn and find compelling ways to put capital. I deliberation nan -- well, I cognize that to beryllium nan case. I deliberation what I would adhd from a proviso position is things are still comparatively tight. If you spell backmost to a twelvemonth ago, we were benignant of buying successful nan benignant of debased to mid-5s from a headdress complaint perspective. I deliberation we've seen that move connected nan crushed successful nan resale environment, possibly 20 aliases 30 ground points is benignant of a mid-5-ish benignant of market, 5.5, 5.6 for benignant of like-kind product.

Now that being said, there's besides nan slightest magnitude of resale proviso inventory successful nan marketplace that we've seen successful nan past 3 to 4 years. So it's a really absorbing moment. The newer build worldly that seems to beryllium coming online, some things that we're taking from a transportation perspective, conversations we're having pinch builders, I deliberation nan return floor plan is simply a small spot better. But those are going to beryllium less -- not less and acold between, but there's conscionable going to be, I think, much angst connected nan builder broadside to thin retired successful benignant of an uncertain environment, fixed wherever liking rates and things are.

So each things being equal, plentifulness of superior willing successful investing, not a tremendous magnitude of opportunity existent time. But we expect that to benignant of mean passim nan year. I deliberation we sewage to spot what happens pinch owe rates. I deliberation arsenic of yesterday, location were a 30-year was person to for illustration a [6.75] (ph) number. And I deliberation builders person been capable to fundamentally bargain down owe rates to enactment beautiful competitory successful nan near-term. Let's spot what happens there. I deliberation we whitethorn person much of an opportunity, hopefully, complete nan twelvemonth if owe rates creep up. And past we're decidedly going to watch resale proviso and really that's impacted by nan labour market. Operator?

Scott McLaughlin

Operator, our adjacent question, please.

Operator

We now person nan adjacent mobility from Austin Wurschmidt of KeyBanc Capital Markets.

Austin Wurschmidt

Hey, bully morning, everybody. I was conscionable funny if you could supply a small spot of an update of benignant of what you're seeing connected nan crushed and whether there's thing giving you region successful immoderate of your markets that benignant of has you taking a much blimpish outlook done nan equilibrium of this year? And past conscionable possibly a speedy update connected really marketplace rents person trended from benignant of precocious past twelvemonth into nan early portion of this year.

Charles Young

Yes, this is Charles. Thanks for nan question. Yes, we for illustration what we're seeing connected nan crushed correct now. Our Q4 results showed a spot of nan seasonality that we saw towards nan mediate of past year. And arsenic expected, we benignant of sewage backmost to that normal curve. During COVID, we -- it was benignant of 98% crossed nan committee and really precocious rent growth. So we're seeing much seasonality. But what nan reality of it is it's still really beardown fixed nan clip of year. So looking astatine Q4 astatine 97.3% occupancy, that accrued passim nan quarter. So we ended December astatine 97.4% and came into January 97.7%. So showing existent beardown request that we're seeing connected nan ground.

As we look astatine rates successful Q4, a blended 9.1%, renewal astatine 9.9% and caller astatine 7.4%. As you would expect pinch seasonality, January and December will beryllium a small lower, but fixed that, a 4.9% caller lease rent maturation successful January is really beardown historically. Couple that pinch nan 97.7% occupancy and 8.7% connected nan renewal side, we deliberation nan portfolio is really good positioned going into highest season, which typically starts correct present aft nan Super Bowl.

And we're seeing immoderate acceleration successful February connected nan caller lease side. So crossed nan board, it's looking good. There's much seasonality successful nan colder markets, nan Denver and Chicago and nan like, but we're still seeing a batch of spot successful our Florida markets. Arizona had a spot of a slowdown pinch nan seasonality, but it's starting to show immoderate existent momentum. So we're seeing immoderate bully worldly crossed nan board. And we're leaning and consciousness bully astir wherever nan portfolio is structured.

Operator

Thank you. We now person nan adjacent mobility from Brad Heffern from RBC Capital Markets. Your statement is now open.

Brad Heffern

Hey, bully morning, everyone. Ernie, could you locomotion done nan buildup to nan gross guidance arsenic acold arsenic earn-in, nonaccomplishment to lease, occupancy, each nan benignant of moving pieces that get you there?

Ernie Freedman

Yes, sure. So Brad, we talked astir successful our -- successful nan prepared remarks arsenic good arsenic successful nan net release, a mates of nan items, 1 pinch -- and I'll talk astir benignant of nan midpoint of nan guidance range, Brad. At nan midpoint of guidance, we do expect down a small spot year-over-year. I deliberation we're successful 2022, we're astatine 97.7%, 97.8%. I deliberation that's going to travel down a small bit. It has to do mostly pinch nan truth we deliberation turnover is going to beryllium a small spot higher. And we talked astir that arsenic good successful position of -- arsenic we're capable to yet to make immoderate much advancement connected residents, who haven't been keeping existent pinch nan rents. We do expect turnover to tick up some, and that's why you're going to spot occupancy travel down.

The different point -- nan different worldly mover connected nan antagonistic broadside for america pinch regards to -- for maturation connected revenues is going to beryllium bad debt. And we're surely facing a batch of nan challenges that different folks are retired location who person vulnerability to Southern California. We do expect that bad indebtedness is going to beryllium up anyplace betwixt 25 ground points and 75 ground points from wherever it was successful 2022. So astir astatine nan midpoint astir 2% wherever we came successful astatine astir 1.5% for nan twelvemonth for 2022. We do deliberation that's going to beryllium elevated a small spot much successful nan first half of 2023. And we do -- we spot a way that we tin commencement getting a small spot amended for america successful nan 2nd half of nan year.

The past point I'd say, nan different 2 pieces that are important pinch our different income. And we deliberation different income is going to beryllium up again debased double-digits, akin to what it was past twelvemonth arsenic we proceed to make advancement connected our ancillary income items. And finally, pinch rates, our earn-in -- we talked astir it connected our past call, our earn-in arsenic we sewage into nan year, we expect it to beryllium astir 4% from nan activity that was done successful 2022, and that didn't alteration successful nan 4th quarter. We did spot nan nonaccomplishment to lease shrink importantly from wherever it was astatine nan extremity of nan 3rd quarter, wherever it was astatine nan extremity of nan 4th quarter. The nonaccomplishment to lease going into nan twelvemonth is astir 1% to 2%.

And we saw that alteration for a mates of reasons, Brad. One was conscionable leasing activity. We started to drawback up to that. But two, and Charles talked astir it, emblematic seasonal patterns for folks successful nan residential business, and we're nary different than a single-family is that you really -- successful a emblematic seasonal year, you'll spot immoderate sequential declines month-over-month successful rental rate. Now we didn't spot that successful ‘21. We really didn't spot overmuch of that successful 2020. But successful 2022, it did travel back. And truthful we did spot immoderate sequential declines arsenic we went from September to October to November to December pinch regards to wherever wide complaint was. And truthful that's why nan operation of those 2 things person brought nonaccomplishment to lease down.

If you return that each into information and our expectations astir what leasing activity is going to look for illustration for renewal and caller successful this twelvemonth successful 2023, you get to our guidance scope that we had provided pinch regards to wherever we thought same-store halfway revenues will spell out. We consciousness optimistic that we person an opportunity to possibly do a small spot better, and we're surely going to effort difficult to do that. But we want to make judge we group nan crushed nan correct measurement astatine nan opening of nan year. And hopefully, we person a twelvemonth for illustration we've had successful nan past wherever we person underpromised and overdelivered, but we'll conscionable person to spot really that plays out.

Operator

We now person Sam Choe pinch Credit Suisse. Your statement is open.

Sam Choe

Hi, guys. Just was wondering if you could supply an update connected your wide thoughts connected utilizing concessions and what that mightiness look for illustration during highest leasing season.

Charles Young

Yes. We person nary concessions moving astatine all. I deliberation we talked astir connected our past call, we had a short-term benignant of mini concessions going into nan vacation to effort to push up connected nan occupancy arsenic we saw seasonality travel back. That's emblematic that we tally successful that clip of year, fixed nan seasonal curve. But arsenic of December, we had nary concessions, and we don't spot immoderate request to do it, fixed our existent occupancy and nan request that we're seeing correct now.

Operator

Thank you. We now person Steve Sakwa pinch Evercore ISI.

Steve Sakwa

Yes, thanks. Good morning. Dallas, I was conscionable wondering if you could remark a small spot much connected immoderate of nan builder relationships. And fixed nan challenges that they're facing successful existent location sales, I conscionable didn't cognize if bulk income and a bigger committedness from you to them to return down homes was much successful nan offering present and really those discussions person possibly unfolded.

Dallas Tanner

Steve, first of all, our pipeline coming sits astatine astir 2,300 homes that we person successful statement pinch our different builder partners. And we're moving correct now pinch 5 to 10 builders, benignant of, nationally and regionally crossed a assortment of opportunities. Obviously, everybody is acquainted pinch our strategical building pinch Pulte. We'd for illustration to build arsenic galore homes pinch them. They've been a terrific partner, and they person a awesome team.

It's interesting, Steve. We benignant of -- location was a batch of unknowns going into summertime past twelvemonth astir benignant of volatility of what was going to hap pinch rate. I deliberation what we've seen astir builders, arsenic I mentioned before, do really good is benignant of navigate nan owe and nan costs broadside of things without having to discount pricing excessively much.

There's surely benignant of quarter-end worldly wherever we've had immoderate mini opportunities. But I deliberation clip will tell, and it's mostly limited connected what happens pinch nan labour market. If things proceed to slow down, I would position that arsenic a very bully opportunity for Invitation Homes successful position of building retired a overmuch wider and longer pipeline crossed purpose-built building that will travel into our portfolio.

We are now coming retired of nan crushed pinch immoderate of our first benignant of afloat communities. We are touring 1 past week successful Atlanta, successful fact. And very pleased pinch nan not only value of nan product, but nan return floor plan and nan demand, arsenic Charles mentioned, apical of funnels really. So Steve, our attack going into ‘23 would beryllium that we're going to look opportunistically to heighten and turn that pipeline and besides those relationships, find ways to do things much programmatically pinch our preferred partners. And obviously, if things slow down, that would be, I think, viewed arsenic a bully point for SFR.

Now it will dangle connected really we salary for those things going forward. But we've sewage plentifulness of, arsenic I mentioned before, third-party superior that would for illustration to look astatine these opportunities pinch us. And we'd besides for illustration to put arsenic accretively arsenic we tin connected nan equilibrium sheet.

Operator

Thank you. We now person Juan Sanabria from BMO Capital Markets. Your statement is open.

Juan Sanabria

Hi, thanks. Just possibly a question, I guess, for Ernie, conscionable connected nan complaint broadside of nan same-store gross equation for ‘23 guidance. Just funny if you tin remark connected assumed marketplace rent maturation crossed your portfolio successful ’23. And possibly really you should -- really we should expect renewals to trend, fixed nan moderating nonaccomplishment to lease. Do you deliberation they could enactment beautiful sticky astir nan precocious azygous digits for nan people of ‘23? Or should we expect that to mean arsenic well?

Ernie Freedman

Yes, implicit successful our guidance and erstwhile I locomotion done nan pieces, Juan, is that we're looking astatine -- for maturation connected rate, blended complaint to beryllium benignant of successful nan mid-single-digits. I deliberation honestly, that's astir apt we person nan champion astir upside opportunity pinch respect to our revenue. And we are going to beryllium capable to cautious is connected nan bad indebtedness side. We sewage burned a small spot by that past year. I deliberation we've built capable into our guidance that we're astir apt okay there, but I want to beryllium cautious location and equilibrium those two.

So I do deliberation connected nan renewal side, we surely person nan opportunity to proceed to enactment astatine elevated levels, but it's difficult to opportunity that I would opportunity astatine nan high-digits for nan full year. So I'd beryllium cautious to opportunity that would beryllium much towards nan high-end of our guidance scope aliases moreover a small spot higher. We consciousness very bully astir having immoderate beardown renewal maturation passim nan remainder of nan year. But -- and we put up immoderate beardown numbers present successful January, and I wouldn't extrapolate that for nan remainder of nan year.

But it's surely imaginable if nan marketplace -- nan designs that we're seeing successful nan marketplace is beautiful strong. There's a anticipation that could happen. But I deliberation if you do nan mathematics and really things will play retired and taking information nan number of 2-year leases we have, you'd lick to a number that gets to benignant of nan mid-single digits for blended maturation complaint for 2023.

Operator

Thank you. We now person Adam Kramer of Morgan Stanley. Please spell up erstwhile you are fresh Adam.

Adam Kramer

Hey, I conscionable want to follow-up connected an earlier mobility astir JVs. Look, I deliberation there's been immoderate benignant of news successful nan property past benignant of number of months astir possibly JVs being much of an avenue that you guys would pursue.

Certainly, a challenging situation for acquisitions successful 2023 overall. Wondering conscionable benignant of nan willingness aliases desire to possibly spell that route. Obviously, you could prime up a small spot of interest income and alteration nan economics a small spot successful nan model. So yes, I guess, conscionable benignant of mostly astir willingness to benignant of spell further down nan JV path?

Dallas Tanner

This is Dallas. I mean, look, we've shown a willingness. We, successful nan past mates of years, person raised a mates of ventures some pinch Rockpoint arsenic a strategical partner. You're precisely correct that it does person a batch of worth adhd to nan REIT successful some position of, telephone it, our returns connected our costs of superior disconnected equilibrium expanse and past besides nan interest procreation and benignant of further work opportunities it creates arsenic we build retired a small spot much robust manager.

And truthful I would expect nan associated task superior will ever beryllium thing that we look astatine connected a comparative ground to wherever our existent costs of superior is from a equilibrium expanse perspective. Don't get maine wrong, we would emotion to put arsenic overmuch superior connected equilibrium expanse arsenic we can. Obviously, astatine today's prices and nan measurement that nan book has been discounted successful nan nationalist markets, that costs of superior is not very attractive.

And truthful I deliberation utilizing third-party avenues aliases having longer-term partners that we tin continually deploy superior pinch is simply a very bully point for our business and for our shareholders. We make outsized returns. It besides allows america to beryllium a small spot much peculiar niche crossed possibly a mates of different areas. And we deliberation that, that will besides springiness nan institution successful its strategical reasoning a batch much elasticity complete time. So I would expect america to proceed to research and usage venues for illustration associated ventures complete clip but ne'er astatine a measurement that it would effect our expertise to turn our equilibrium expanse and ever trying to find that correct balance.

Operator

Thank you. Your adjacent mobility comes from Chandni Luthra of Goldman Sachs. Please spell ahead.

Chandni Luthra

HI, bully morning. Thank you for taking my question. I wanted to talk astir spot taxes a small bit. So your guidance assumes existent property taxes will summation 7%, and that's an betterment from 2022. What's nan driver down this anticipation of betterment successful nan maturation rate? Are location definite markets that make you deliberation that fundamentally taxation maturation will moderate? Anything going connected much circumstantial aliases much idiosyncratic anywhere? Would emotion your thoughts there.

Ernie Freedman

Yes, Chandni, it's Ernie. Happy to talk astir nan existent property taxes. So arsenic a reminder to everyone connected nan call, for us, erstwhile you deliberation astir existent property tax, you want to deliberation astir our 3 largest markets wherever we salary nan astir taxes, which are Florida, California and Georgia, and we talked astir that successful nan past quarter. California, we tin benignant of return disconnected nan array because of Prop 13. So that's ever going to beryllium a little complaint year-over-year. And there'll beryllium immoderate sound astir appeals and things for illustration that moreover wrong California.

For Florida, we're not -- I cognize we're incorrect past year, but we're not anticipating different twelvemonth of taxation bills being up 20% aliases astir 14% past twelvemonth pinch assessments being up almost 30% past year. Similar communicative pinch Georgia. We're not expecting a 2nd back-to-back twelvemonth pinch it arsenic precocious arsenic it was before. In Florida, location is immoderate alleviation for folks arsenic to really overmuch tin get pushed done successful 1 year. There are immoderate caps connected two-thirds of your taxation bill. Said different way, because assessments were truthful high, we'll astir apt bump up against those caps again successful Florida for that two-thirds piece. But erstwhile you benignant of do nan mathematics connected Florida, California and Georgia, we deliberation we'll beryllium successful a amended position than we were successful 2022. And those 3 mixed are astir 70% of our taxation bill.

We do person immoderate different areas that we do deliberation we person immoderate important increases from anterior year. But again, because they're smaller taxation bills for us, it's not arsenic impactful, Maciver County successful Charlotte will beryllium an illustration wherever we will spot immoderate unit there, because revaluations hap not connected an yearly basis, but a multiyear basis. You opportunity nan aforesaid point astir Denver, wherever we'll person that situation arsenic well. Again, nan taxation measure is successful Colorado arsenic good arsenic nan taxation bills successful North Carolina aren't arsenic worldly to us.

And past finally, we did spot ample taxation bills successful Texas arsenic well. But for us, Texas is not a worldly player. I wouldn't beryllium amazed if Texas has different unsmooth twelvemonth successful 2023. But again, for america because our vulnerability is small, it's not going to person nan effect connected america that it mightiness person connected others. So overall, that's why we fundamentally travel successful pinch nan year, Chandni that we deliberation is going to beryllium beautiful akin to what past year. Last twelvemonth was, arsenic you pointed out, it was 7.8%. This year, we're guiding 6.5% to 7.5%.

So those are still historically really precocious numbers for us, but we do spot a way that things mightiness get a small spot better. And past importantly, pinch taxes, successful lawsuit I deliberation group are reasoning astir it, we really haven't baked successful very overmuch successful position of entreaty wins. So if we do spot immoderate worldly entreaty wins, that could thief america get america to nan little extremity of our range. But we'll conscionable person to spot really that plays out. Those are surely very difficult to predict, but we don't request to person worldly entreaty wins to get to nan scope that we've provided successful our guidance.

Operator

Thank you. We now person Keegan Carl pinch Wolfe Research. Your statement is open, Keegan.

Keegan Carl

Hey, thanks, guys. So I cognize you gave nan percent breakout arsenic acold arsenic shares go. But I'm conscionable funny if you could springiness america a small spot much breakout connected your maturation expectations betwixt growth, spot guidance and G&A for ’23?

Ernie Freedman

Yes. We noted connected nan -- successful nan -- if you look astatine our supplemental schedule, we gave a locomotion of FFO from 2022 to nan midpoint of our guidance successful 2023. And we had pointed retired that we thought that spot guidance disbursal statement would turn astir $0.03. So for us, that's astir $17 million, $18 million. A batch of that is nan continued finance successful our exertion platform. Part of that is nan continued maturation of our associated venture. So arsenic we get much income from our associated ventures pinch regards to spot guidance fees, we person spot guidance disbursal offsetting that because of a number of homes.

And past connected apical of that, we conscionable person immoderate inflationary pressures. We besides ran a small spot understaffed successful nan first portion of 2022. I deliberation a batch of organizations were challenged pinch filling positions, and we're assuming a much afloat headcount successful 2023. We'll spot really that comes to play. But those are nan main factors successful position of pinch regards to that. And specifically connected our P&L, we do break retired spot guidance abstracted from G&A. And we'll spot a small spot much of that maturation connected nan spot guidance side, but it's going to beryllium much proportionate this year.

If you look astatine ‘22 to ‘21, G&A was comparatively flat, and astir of nan maturation we had successful those mixed items came from spot management. This twelvemonth successful 2023 compared to 2022, it's going to beryllium person to being moreover growth, but a small spot much connected nan spot guidance broadside versus nan G&A line.

Operator

Thank you. We now person Tyler Batory of Oppenheimer. Your statement is now open.

Tyler Batory

Good morning. Thank you. So conscionable connected nan operating costs broadside of things, I really conscionable want to necktie nan loop connected this topic. I mean, ex spot taxes, erstwhile we look astatine same-store OpEx, I conscionable want to beryllium clear connected nan drivers of that, rather a spot of maturation there. How overmuch of that is owed to higher turnover? How overmuch of that is owed to conscionable wide costs inflation?

And really, what I'm trying to get at, has location been a structural alteration successful position of nan costs structure? I deliberation location was ever a interest pinch your business exemplary that it would beryllium difficult to scale. So I'm not judge if possibly this outlook present denotation that possibly immoderate conscionable economies of standard creeping successful your business model, conscionable fixed your size and nan property of immoderate of your homes?

Ernie Freedman

Tyler, it’s Ernie. I admit you asking because if you person that concern, different group mightiness person that interest arsenic well. And nan reply is no, we're not seeing immoderate concerns pinch having dissynergies from nan size of nan organization. I deliberation that's helping us. I tin surely locomotion done immoderate of nan details, but you're correct to constituent retired that we're guiding existent property taxes to beryllium up astir 7% astatine nan midpoint, but we're guiding overall, which is simply a small spot much than half of our wide expenses. Overall, we're guiding to a number that's astir 8.5% astatine nan midpoint. So that intends everything other is going up a small spot more.

So I deliberation astir of that, and I'll locomotion you done nan details, we judge are much transitory items based connected nan circumstances wherever we're astatine correct now successful nan marketplace. I'll conscionable spell done immoderate of nan worldly items successful there. One was security costs. I don't deliberation anyone is amazed successful nan situation hearing, but others, but spot security rates are surely going to spell up. We'll decorativeness our renewal present successful astir 3 weeks. So we don't person nan last numbers connected that. But successful nan past 2 years, our spot security only went up mixed astir 3% aliases 4%. It was 0% 1 year, astir 7% aliases 8% nan adjacent year. So we did overmuch amended than nan broader residential.

But pinch nan costs of reinsurance treaties going measurement up this year, and certainly, of course, nan events that happened successful 2022, security costs are going to spell up. We don't deliberation that's a imperishable issue. We deliberation that's a onetime issue. I wouldn't beryllium amazed if spot security rates spell up arsenic overmuch arsenic 20% to 25%, which would bring our wide security costs up location into nan debased double-digits, because nan bully news connected different security lines, we're not seeing those benignant of increases.

The ones that are much worldly for us, Tyler, are really astir turnover. And a mates of things pinch turnover. One, location are inflationary pressures. We do deliberation those will subside arsenic you get later into 2023 and 2024, but we're still successful an inflationary situation there. The different items that really constituent retired pinch turnover are 2 important things. One, we do deliberation turnover is going to spell up. And we deliberation that's a bully thing. Turnover is going to -- because we deliberation we're going to person a amended opportunity successful 2023 than we had successful 2022 for residents who person been delinquent successful making rental payments, not paying nan rent, we expect to spot much activity location successful group moving retired homes. And truthful we do deliberation turnover is going to spell up for that reason. We deliberation that's much of a transitory point and activity itself retired arsenic we get later into 2023 and possibly a small spot of hangover successful 2024 because of Southern California.

The different item, though, is those residents I conscionable alluded to, they've typically been successful our houses longer. Often, they don't let america to travel successful to do repair and attraction work. They don't telephone successful work requests arsenic often arsenic our residents, who are keeping existent successful their rent. And truthful erstwhile we spell successful to do nan turns connected those homes, those turns are materially much costly than a regular measurement turn, sometimes arsenic overmuch arsenic 40% to 50% much connected mean than our regular turn. So arsenic we're dealing pinch those residents, Tyler, that are -- person been treating nan houses nan measurement they person and person not been paying nan rents, we again deliberation that it's much of a 2023 event. It goes distant successful 2024 successful position of our costs per turn, having a overmuch much higher maturation complaint than we've seen successful nan past.

So we don't deliberation that's an rumor pinch -- if you deliberation astir nan semipermanent thoughts astir what disbursal maturation is going to be. So summarizing real-quickly, we deliberation that's much of a circumstantial ‘23 issue. We deliberation spot taxes will revert backmost to much normalized maturation rates arsenic we get into ‘24 and going forward. We deliberation turnover will surely spell up complete nan adjacent play of time. We get to a much normalized complaint for america going forward.

And past nan costs return, which I conscionable alluded to, should really spot immoderate deflationary pressures complete clip because of nan type of turns that we're going to beryllium doing. And that should each put america backmost connected a way that you saw from america for a very agelong time, wherever we had disbursal maturation that was wrong ostentation aliases a small spot little than inflation.

Operator

Thank you. We now person John Pawlowski of Green Street.

John Pawlowski

Thanks. Maybe conscionable continuing that statement of thought. It conscionable feels for illustration you're baking successful a batch of ostentation connected nan disbursal statement items and not a batch of ostentation connected rents, because immoderate of these costs are going to push up nan costs of ownership. So Charles, what markets connected nan crushed are you seeing arsenic imaginable canary successful nan ember excavation for caller lease maturation going to, whatever, 3%, which seems to beryllium implied successful nan guidance? Where are you seeing cracks successful demand?

Charles Young

Yes. As we talked astir earlier, occupancy is real-strong. Historically, looking astatine past year, Florida has been really beardown for us, wherever we started to spot erstwhile nan seasonality came backmost was a spot of a slowdown successful our accepted colder markets for illustration nan Denvers, nan Chicagos. But successful -- Minnesotas. But again, they're not worldly to us. And generally, we're still seeing bully demand. And to Ernie's point, there's an opportunity aliases upside present connected nan caller lease side, fixed benignant of nan building of nan portfolio today.

Our occupancy is moving really precocious for January historically, and we for illustration nan acceleration that we're seeing. So I don't spot immoderate markets that person concern. I spot markets that person been really performing well. Phoenix slowed down. There was a batch of proviso location for a short period, but we're seeing that bounce backmost quickly. So I'm not seeing thing that has america concerned.

I deliberation we're getting backmost to our humanities rates. If you spell backmost to pre-COVID, you're going to spot seasonally nan summertime wherever there's turnover and precocious demand, we're going to spot that's wherever caller lease is going to push up. And I deliberation it will beryllium crossed nan board. Some markets will execute a small amended than others.

And past you get into Q1 and Q4, and you get that seasonal slowdown wherever connected nan renewal side, we deliberation it's going to beryllium beautiful steady. We're astatine a -- successful nan 8s successful Q4, and we're holding dependable present successful January. We do deliberation it's going to mean a small spot arsenic you get further out, fixed nan nonaccomplishment to lease script laid retired by Ernie. But I deliberation nan renewal broadside will beryllium much steady, and we'll get nan emblematic seasonality connected nan caller lease side. That's awesome for america fixed our humanities benignant of footprint successful our 60 markets. It's a bully balance.

Operator

Thank you. We now person Dennis McGill of Zelman. Your statement is now open.

Dennis McGill

Thank you. Ernie, I was conscionable hoping you tin spell backmost to that nonaccomplishment to lease comment. I deliberation you said it was 1 to two. And past quarter, I deliberation it was possibly 10, and there's a mates of factors there. You mentioned you're realizing immoderate of it, and past immoderate of it is conscionable what's going connected pinch seasonality aliases marketplace rents. Just fixed that there's not arsenic overmuch turnover successful nan 4th quarter, I was wondering if you could possibly divided retired really overmuch do you deliberation of that is marketplace versus what you've realized?

Ernie Freedman

Yes. And rough-rough, I deliberation astir -- erstwhile we looked astatine it, I'd opportunity astir apt astir a 3rd of it, Dennis, was we were capable to proceed to gain into what's happening pinch leasing activity, but we did spot a driblet disconnected of wherever marketplace complaint was successful August, September of 2022 to wherever it ended up successful December. We've surely seen that already starting to activity its measurement backmost up arsenic we typically do successful season, and Charles talked astir our play starts a small spot sooner. But rough-rough was astir apt one-third, two-third, Dennis, successful position of what we were capable to gain into versus wherever we saw immoderate marketplace declines from wherever they were successful nan stronger numbers successful nan 3rd quarter.

Dennis McGill

And is that 1% to 2% number, is that extremity of nan twelvemonth aliases is that extremity of January?

Ernie Freedman

That would beryllium December 31st.

Dennis McGill

Okay, convey you.

Ernie Freedman

Yes.

Operator

Thank you. We now person Anthony Powell of Barclays. Your statement is open. Please spell up erstwhile you are ready. Hello, Anthony could you please cheque your statement is unmuted locally, we are not going immoderate audio from nan line.

We'll move connected to nan adjacent questioner. We now person Jade Rahmani of KBW.

Jade Rahmani

Thank you very much. Can you remark connected what you're seeing successful position of caller supply? Generally speaking, I deliberation you made immoderate comments astir Phoenix having bounced back, but there's still beautiful grounds levels of some multifamily supplies expected arsenic good arsenic build to rent pinch astir each homebuilder allocating possibly 5% to 10% of their accumulation towards single-family for rent. What are you expecting from caller supply? And I cognize you're mostly concentrated successful infill locations, chiefly having originated properties from nan existing location market. But your thoughts location would beryllium helpful. Thank you.

Dallas Tanner

Yes. Thanks, Jade. And Charles tin consciousness free to adhd thing to this. I deliberation connected nan multifamily side, you're right, I deliberation there's going to beryllium immoderate multifamily unit in, kind, of a fewer different markets. But I deliberation you've seen -- I deliberation we -- moreover successful our release, we talked astir nan differential connected a per quadrate ft ground successful position of really overmuch much charismatic SFR rents are apt than multifamily.

The different point I would conscionable adhd is successful conscionable immoderate of nan information that we follow, we've really seen benignant of a pickup successful caller lease maturation crossed telephone it nan 99 SFR markets. It grew astir -- according to Burns, it was for illustration 6.5% successful 2022. They're seeing a small spot -- astir group are forecasting a small spot of a deceleration to Charles' constituent connected nan seasonality side. But look, I dream nan takeaway present from nan speech and what Charles and Ernie person shared is we've been pleasantly amazed truthful acold pinch nan January numbers and wherever request seems to beryllium picking up. There were markets that had a small spot of unit going into summertime past year. But we are not seeing thing successful our markets that's suggesting that a multifamily proposition is outweighing somebody's determination than to spell astatine SFR.

On nan build-to-rent broadside of it, it's been really absorbing to watch that marketplace evolve, Jade. I toured a bunch of this past week successful Phoenix. And immoderate of this worldly is simply a small spot further retired than what you would deliberation of our portfolio if you spent immoderate clip successful nan car pinch us. And it's different. It comes successful each shapes and sizes. Some of it is much of your benignant of stack merchandise aliases benignant of stock a communal wall Gemini-type of benignant of divided level plans wherever you person townhomes and a fewer different things.

And past immoderate of it is besides nan SFR detached piece. So I deliberation nan SFR detached piece, I interest little astir from a worth proposition position pinch townhome and amenities. We are paying attraction to spot if there's a worth additive aliases a premium that is expected pinch those types of delivery. So far, we're not seeing thing that is straight impacting our business.

And lastly, conscionable arsenic a reminder, we person built nan portfolio from a purpose-built position going backmost 11 years agone to make judge that we made a overmuch bigger attraction connected being infill and surviving amongst our neighbors and a batch of interest elemental location ownership. That has carried nan time for us, I think, some connected a position of really we've been capable to make judge that we are attracting immoderate of nan champion rental complaint successful nan marketplace but besides nan duration, magnitude of stay.

I've been astir impressed lately pinch our -- immoderate of this astir apt gets a small spot of a COVID tailwind to it. But our magnitude of enactment is now complete almost 3 years successful each our markets. California, we're seeing a push adjacent to 4 years. People are conscionable staying a batch longer, and I deliberation it speaks to some nan product, location, and I deliberation nan worth proposition of a for-lease acquisition pinch a bully business.

Operator

Thank you. We now person nan adjacent mobility from Haendel St. Juste of Mizuho. Please spell up erstwhile you are ready.

Barry Lu

Hey, guys. It's Barry Lu connected for Haendel St. Juste. Thanks for taking my question. I conscionable had a speedy mobility connected nan entreaty process for George and Florida. Are you seeing immoderate likelihood of occurrence aliases worldly recoveries successful those markets?

Ernie Freedman

Oh, location decidedly is. There's likelihood they're having immoderate success. We'll conscionable person to spot whether it will beryllium worldly aliases not. The Georgia process tin return a small -- some process tin really return a small spot of a while. As a reminder, we appealed much than we ever person successful Georgia. Florida, we appealed akin to what we've done successful past years and possibly a small spot more. Florida is simply a comparatively adjacent authorities erstwhile it comes to doing assessments.

And truthful there's not going to -- we didn't put successful a worldly number of appeals but whitethorn person a worldly occurrence complaint successful position of what happens successful Florida. So I deliberation nan bigger opportunity for america and certainly, wherever we've appealed much particularly based connected wherever we saw assessments came retired are going to beryllium successful Georgia, which is our 3rd largest state. So we'll conscionable person to hold and spot successful position of really that plays out.

Operator

Thank you. We now person nan adjacent mobility from Michael Gorman of BTIG. Please spell ahead, erstwhile you are ready, Michael.

Michael Gorman

Yes, thanks. Good morning. Ernie, could I conscionable walk different infinitesimal connected nan bad indebtedness broadside of nan equation? I deliberation you mentioned vulnerability to Southern California. Is that nan only marketplace that's driving nan 75 -- 25 to 75 ground points aliases are location different geographies? And past really overmuch of that is related to imaginable softening connected nan economical broadside versus regulatory pressures that's making it harder to woody pinch those tenants who do get down connected their rent?

Ernie Freedman

Yes, bully question. The mostly -- nan immense mostly of nan summation is because of Southern California. We surely person different markets and are performing wherever we want them to beryllium and are higher wherever they've been historically. But we expect those markets to really do astir nan aforesaid aliases amended from wherever they were successful 2022, because we -- successful astir of nan different markets, we're a small spot further on and beryllium capable to woody pinch things. So nan mostly of nan interest is coming from Southern California, but it is radiated successful immoderate different places arsenic well.

And I'd opportunity it's almost all, if not wholly owed to nan regulatory situation and moving pinch nan section courts, moving pinch -- successful immoderate markets wherever pools to show nan propensity to change. We're not seeing thing successful today's numbers, thing successful nan past 12 months, not projecting thing guardant that would show america we request to do thing different aliases much from a bad indebtedness position pinch regards to conscionable nan wide situation and wherever things are at.

Operator

Thank you. We now person Linda Tsai of Jefferies. Your statement is now open.

Linda Tsai

Hi, what benignant of unemployment expectations do you presume for nan guidelines lawsuit of ‘23 guidance? Is it level pinch today? Or are you forecasting deterioration?

Ernie Freedman

Yes, we're not -- we're -- I'll show you, Linda, is we're assuming it's going to beryllium an situation that's benignant of akin what we've seen for nan past 12 months. So we're not expecting a important improvement. It would beryllium difficult amended wherever unemployment numbers are for wherever they are coming that it's truthful low. We're besides not forecasting astatine nan midpoint of our guidance a degradation aliases a worldly degradation from wherever they are.

And of course, past our guidance ranges do seizure nan truth that if we aren't capable to push complaint arsenic overmuch arsenic we want aliases we person immoderate occupancy challenges because of nan labour market, that would get captured somewhat successful our numbers pinch regards to nan little extremity of our range. But arsenic Charles talked about, early days, but we're emotion beautiful bully pinch wherever occupancy is.

And we're surely seeing opportunity to do good connected complaint and possibly a small amended than our guidance implies. But overall, we're benignant of assuming it's going to beryllium conscionable benignant of an wide akin type market, whether it's unemployment, whether -- and each nan different macros that we're looking astatine correct now.

Operator

Thank you. We now person Tony Paolone of JPMorgan. Please spell ahead, erstwhile you are ready.

Tony Paolone

Thank you. You've talked successful nan past that you've built Invitation Homes to tally materially much than nan 83,000 homes you presently own. And truthful I'm conscionable wondering, what are nan -- what's nan biggest gating facet to move outer maturation backmost connected successful a much meaningful way? Like is it really your superior cost? Is it nan selectivity of what you want to buy? Or do you conscionable deliberation prices are going to travel down, and you don't want to beryllium successful beforehand of that?

Dallas Tanner

It's not nan latter. I mean, I deliberation past twelvemonth was much of nan latter, Tony, successful position of -- we started to slow down our buying successful April aliases May importantly because we were worried -- there's a batch of unknowns erstwhile nan Fed started moving complaint arsenic accelerated arsenic it did. Now I deliberation we're each happy to opportunity 9 months later, we haven't seen a degradation successful location prices that would propose that location is immense punishment and gloom connected nan horizon. It's really nan opportunity set.

Remember, we were capable to build really important standard complete clip successful an situation wherever you had years of resale proviso connected nan marketplace and a costs of superior that was beautiful attractive. In today's environment, we person little supply. We spot benignant of an uncertainty successful really we moreover position benignant of our ain equilibrium expanse superior correct now. We're not pleased pinch wherever nan banal is presently trading.

And lastly, we spot builders being a small much cautious, and there's section regulatory restriction. Now each that sounds negative. It's really a really bully point for nan request broadside of our business, arsenic you guys know. We are not seeing immoderate degradation successful apical of funnel. In fact, to Ernie's constituent to what Charles said earlier, we're really bullish connected nan prospects of some nan value of nan resident. We've seen a tremendous summation in, telephone it, nan underwriting standards of our resident complete nan past mates of years and nan magnitude of request we person for nan product. We evidently want to grow. We would emotion to grow. I deliberation we've gotten beautiful bully marks of being a prudent superior allocator complete time. And I deliberation we sewage it correct successful ample portion by being successful nan markets that we are pinch nan type of standard that we have.

Tony, we're going to proceed to find ways to build caller merchandise and to bring much merchandise into nan marketplace. We made that committedness astir 18, 24 months ago. We've sewage complete $1 billion, telephone it $1 billion, $1.5 cardinal successful our existent pipeline. And we're going to find ways to proceed to build and create strategical ventures pinch partners that are connected nan homebuilding broadside truthful that we tin commencement to ramp that up complete nan coming years. But we besides want to proceed to beryllium opportunistic and bargain successful a one-off nature.

The 1 point that I deliberation will beryllium absorbing and we're keeping an oculus connected is complete nan adjacent mates of years, pinch liking complaint costs being wherever they are, I deliberation location are going to beryllium immoderate opportunities for further M&A pinch mini to midsized portfolios arsenic operators see their options astir recapping aliases not. And I dream that we'll get an opportunity to look astatine immoderate of those types of opportunities.

And I would expect that successful nan sector, we'll still spot opportunities for consolidation. Invitation Homes coming is nan operation of 4 aliases 5 different companies arsenic it presently sits. And I would expect that there'll beryllium opportunities to bargain further businesses aliases portfolios successful nan coming years. So expect america to benignant of proceed to support an oculus towards maturation arsenic we ever have. But it's been a small spot of a weird twelvemonth successful position of uncertainty and candidly conscionable nan constricted magnitude of proviso successful nan marketplace.

Operator

Thank you. We now person Austin Wurschmidt of KeyBanc Capital Markets. Please spell ahead, erstwhile you are ready, Austin.

Austin Wurschmidt

Yes, acknowledgment for taking nan follow-up here. I don't judge this has been deed on, but conscionable wanted to inquire astir nan qui tam and benignant of nan latest update really you guys are reasoning astir a imaginable lengthy tribunal proceedings, what nan imaginable costs of that could beryllium and whether aliases not you're considering aliases evaluating a imaginable colony successful bid to beryllium mindful, I guess, of nan wide cost? Just immoderate update location you tin provide? Thanks.

Dallas Tanner

Thanks, Austin. This is Dallas. First, like, obviously, arsenic we said before, we don't remark really successful awesome item connected ongoing ineligible matters. In narration to nan qui tam, this will beryllium apt a agelong process. We're not moreover to a find phase. It's still benignant of astatine nan beforehand extremity of nan administrative side. I'll opportunity what we've said before. We consciousness for illustration we person really bully facts connected our side. We will and reserve nan correct to take sides ourselves appropriately. And we'll evidently update The Street and you guys arsenic -- aliases if we had caller accusation erstwhile it, travel to us, but nary update location astatine this constituent successful time.

Operator

Thank you. We person nan last mobility connected nan statement from Anthony Powell of Barclays. Your statement is now open.

Anthony Powell

Hi, hello? Can you perceive me?

Dallas Tanner

We tin perceive you.

Ernie Freedman

We can.

Anthony Powell

Yes, thanks. Sorry for nan earlier [Indiscernible]. I conjecture connected turnover, mentioned a batch of times that turnover was increasing. I wanted to corroborate that, that's really isolated to Southern California and different -- different bad indebtedness situation. This is not really a wide summation successful turnover successful your portfolio.

Ernie Freedman

No, no, it's crossed nan committee because we're still moving done successful each our markets, residents that haven't paying rent an rumor successful Southern Cal, there's surely much there. So crossed nan board, we're going to spot an summation successful turnover. And successful fact, honestly, California whitethorn return a small longer for america to get there, because of nan business successful nan regulatory environment. So nan bad indebtedness number, and it's being elevated is going to beryllium because of Southern California and because it's much difficult to move guardant pinch residents who aren't paying there. But eventually, it's going to move present pinch -- which hopefully continues to beryllium pinch wherever nan rules are. But it's going to beryllium much crossed nan committee arsenic we benignant of cleanable up from nan remainder of what was going connected during nan pandemic situation successful astir of our markets.

Anthony Powell

Got it. But it's not for illustration owed to tenants conscionable not accepting rent increases and moving out, it's much of a bad indebtedness tenants, tin cleanable up. Is that fair?

Ernie Freedman

That is -- yes, absolutely. We're seeing our retention levels for group accepting and renewal increases being wherever they've ever been. So it's conscionable -- it's taking attraction of what you described.

Operator

Thank you. I would for illustration to manus it backmost to Dallas Tanner for his closing remarks.

Dallas Tanner

We convey everyone for joining america connected nan telephone today. And we look guardant to seeing everybody astatine nan Citi convention successful a mates of weeks. Take care.

Operator

Thank you each for joining. That does reason today's call. Please person a beautiful day, and you whitethorn now disconnect your lines.

Editor: Naga



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