Invitae's Battle To Reignite Revenue Growth And Overcome Financial Challenges

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Addressing Invitae's Two Main Challenges: Business Model Cohesion and Cash Crunch

An update connected Invitae (NYSE:NVTA) is warranted. As I've mentioned previously, this banal was erstwhile a darling during nan Covid outbreak. However, nan guidance team's penchant for serial acquisitions, mixed pinch an unforgiving macro situation for cash-burning stocks, led to nan bubble bursting.

Now, nan institution is swiftly pivoting its strategy to prioritize execution and stem nan rate bleeding. But fto maine beryllium clear, they are not retired of nan woods yet. In fact, moreover companies successful a amended footing whitethorn struggle successful nan existent macro environment.

Invitae is presently facing 2 main challenges. Firstly, nan institution must combine a coherent business exemplary from dozens of puzzle pieces, which person been acquired successful nan past mates of years. Secondly, Invitae must debar nan rate crunch that is looming successful 2024/2025. The institution has precocious released its 4th 4th results, and we tin now spot really they person addressed these challenges frankincense far.

The institution had convertible indebtedness maturing successful 2024, which could person been highly dilutive for shareholders. However, nan institution has taken decisive action to lick this first issue. The institution has signed a $336 cardinal transaction led by Deerfield Management, which efficaciously addresses 96% of nan outstanding convertible indebtedness woody successful 2024. Investors will speech 90% of their existent 2024 notes pinch caller elder secured notes owed successful 2028 and besides will equitize 10% of their holdings. Additionally, nan institution has afloat repaid nan $135 cardinal elder secured word loan, and nan indebtedness repayment is estimated to prevention complete $15 cardinal of liking expense.

After that, nan institution estimates that it will person a pro forma rate equilibrium of $450 cardinal astatine nan adjacent of nan indebtedness transaction. Additionally, Invitae has astir $245 cardinal secured indebtedness capacity disposable aft nan transaction, which intends they person entree to further backing that they person not yet utilized. This further extends their rate runway and provides further elasticity arsenic they navigate their business exemplary changes.





Albeit a bully step, it's important to statement that it simply postpones nan company's financial challenges alternatively than solving them entirely.

On nan business side, Invitae has been taking actual steps to reshape its costs structure. These efforts person gained momentum, pinch non-GAAP operating expenses reduced to astir 111% of revenues successful Q4 2022 compared to 171% successful Q4 2021.



They claim to person made important advancement successful its strategical realignment efforts, including nan waste of definite assets related to nan distributed RUO kitted solution. As a result, Invitae has been capable to trim its ongoing rate pain to $77 cardinal for nan quarter, excluding definite items. A important simplification compared to $196 cardinal successful Q4 2021. Looking astatine nan full-year results, we tin spot that Invitae has achieved 12% year-over-year maturation successful revenue, a non-GAAP gross separator of 42.5%, and a full-year rate pain of $510 million.



Invitae's Core Businesses: Hereditary Cancer and Promising Growth Areas

The institution is betting connected its halfway businesses, peculiarly hereditary cancer, to beryllium nan gross and gross separator driver successful nan present. According to nan CEO, nan company's hereditary crab offering is their highest gross business, pinch a separator floor plan supra their firm average.

Looking ahead, Invitae sees maturation opportunities successful respective areas, including somatic oncology pinch its minimum residual illness product, PCM, arsenic good arsenic successful pharmacogenomics and its diligent web platform. These areas correspond promising opportunities for nan institution to reignite its gross maturation complete nan short to mid term.

Invitae has developed a Personalized Cancer Monitoring (PCM) assay that utilizes a patient's tumor to thief observe minimal residual illness (MRD) successful patients pinch shape I-IV cancer. By utilizing circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) successful blood, nan trial provides personalized accusation astir a patient's crab and allows for a little invasive and much convenient measurement to show crab progression compared to accepted methods. The institution expects it to go a significant gross driver arsenic it moves towards affirmative gross margins pinch nan use of reimbursement practices.

In addition, Invitae will usage their pharmacogenomics offering to pass clinicians and patients of perchance vulnerable drug-drug and drug-gene interactions, which tin nonstop galore crab patients to nan ER unnecessarily. The company's Pharmacogenomics (PGX) Panel, which uses an individual's genetics to foretell their consequence to commonly prescribed medications.





In my opinion, Invitae appears to beryllium moving person to being some a complement and a competitor to companies for illustration Exact Sciences and Guardant Health.

Uncertain Future: Risks and Challenges for Invitae

Invitae's maturation strategy was fueled by acquisitions that were financed by inflated insubstantial stock, resulting successful a deficiency of coherence among their offerings that could present synergies and reenforce growth. They tried to connection everything to everyone successful nan familial testing section without existent cohesion. While this could person continued and yet sorted itself retired fixed capable time, nan caller liking complaint authorities successful 2022 changed nan game.

The caller guidance responded to nan challenging situation by rolling retired a realignment scheme successful July 2022, anticipating higher indebtedness costs and trouble successful tapping nan superior markets. The institution has made immoderate basal decisions, including exiting definite territories and countries, resulting successful nan institution trading products successful little than a twelve countries now. As we’ve seen successful nan first section, nan guidance squad has results to show.

However, nan risks loom large. Despite nan advancement made successful reducing cash-burn and executing connected its realignment plan, nan institution whitethorn still look a liquidity crunch. Furthermore, while nan refocus of its business exemplary is underway, nan continuation of gross maturation has yet to beryllium demonstrated, and it remains to beryllium seen if this refocus will beryllium successful. Additionally, nan company's history of serial acquisitions whitethorn proceed to coming challenges, and its costs building is not yet afloat adjusted. Below is simply a pro forma adjusted cash-burn for 2022. As you tin see, nan institution still has a agelong measurement to go.


Author's computation based connected institution financials

Invitae has indicated that it expects a quarterly cash-burn of $75 cardinal successful 2023, which translates to a rate pain of $300 cardinal for nan year. Despite nan equilibrium expanse rearrangement that they person undertaken, nan institution tin only expect a maximum of 2 years of rate runway. This intends that they person a batch of activity up of them to execute a much coagulated financial footing.

Invitae could perchance execute a income aggregate akin to Guardant aliases Exact, which could beryllium astir 5 times sales. However, considering nan existent authorities of their equilibrium expanse and costs structure, location is besides a important consequence of nan institution facing bankruptcy aliases being acquired for a debased price. As a result, I judge nan risk-return proposition of investing successful Invitae is presently uncertain, and I americium choosing to stay connected nan sidelines.

This article was written by

Nelson Alves floor plan picture

Nelson Alves is simply a master investor, established successful Portugal. He started his profession successful 2007 correct astatine nan commencement of nan biggest financial situation since 1929. Until 2011 he worked successful respective trading desks. His main influences are Philip Fisher and Warren Buffet. Nelson is looking to thief mini investors connected nan task of preserving and expanding their savings’ funds. Being a thoroughly student of respective finance approaches, he believes that nan equity markets should beryllium connected work of some mini and organization investors, and truthful each national should beryllium capable to reclaim his adjacent stock of nan semipermanent increasing prosperity astir nan world.

Disclosure: I/we person a beneficial agelong position successful nan shares of NVTA, EXAS either done banal ownership, options, aliases different derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my ain opinions. I americium not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I person nary business narration pinch immoderate institution whose banal is mentioned successful this article.

Additional disclosure: This matter expresses nan views of nan writer arsenic of nan day indicated and specified views are taxable to alteration without notice. The writer has nary work aliases responsibility to update nan accusation contained herein. Further, wherever location is nan imaginable for profit location is besides nan anticipation of loss. Additionally, nan coming article is being made disposable for acquisition purposes only and should not beryllium utilized for immoderate different purpose. The accusation contained herein does not represent and should not beryllium construed arsenic an offering of advisory services aliases an connection to waste aliases inducement to bargain immoderate securities aliases related financial instruments successful immoderate jurisdiction. Some accusation and information contained herein concerning economical trends and capacity is based connected aliases derived from accusation provided by independent third-party sources. The writer trusts that nan sources from which specified accusation has been obtained are reliable; however, it cannot guarantee nan accuracy of specified accusation and has not independently verified nan accuracy aliases completeness of specified accusation aliases nan assumptions connected which specified accusation is based.

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