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Google Vs. Microsoft: One Of These AI Champions Has 3X Better Return Potential

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This article was published connected Dividend Kings connected Thursday, February 16th, 2023.

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As difficult arsenic it is to judge that bubbles tin shape successful a carnivore market, that's what we've seen hap pinch artificial intelligence, or AI, stocks successful caller weeks.

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Ycharts

The largest pure-play AI stock, C3.ai, Inc. (AI), is up complete 100% YTD, while smaller names for illustration BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (BBAI) are up complete 500% - and astatine 1 point, it was up 700% this year, successful a matter of weeks.

This frenzied hysteria of "buy now, inquire questions later" is akin to nan meme banal mania of January and February 2021. Back then, during nan highest of nan post-Pandemic speculative bubble, things sewage truthful silly that Hertz went up 7X successful a day... aft filing for bankruptcy.

Only 2 months aft its motorboat successful precocious November, nan chatbot had 100 cardinal monthly progressive users successful January, according to information from Similarweb. A study from Swiss slope UBS noted that “in 20 years pursuing nan net space, we cannot callback a faster ramp successful a user net app.” OpenAI, which owns and hosts ChatGPT, precocious became 1 of nan 50 astir visited websites successful nan world, according to Digital-adoption.com." - Time (emphasis added).

All this began successful November pinch nan nationalist motorboat of ChatGPT, nan fastest-growing Internet exertion successful quality history.

Today I americium not going to talk astir whether aliases not you should bargain 1 of nan speculative AI axenic plays. I'm going to attraction connected different silly facet of nan AI bubble we see, which is nan mobility of whether aliases not Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) tin usage OpenAI's chatbot to move Bing into a Google challenger and bargain nan hunt and, pinch it, nan world online advertizing crown, from Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG, NASDAQ:GOOGL) ("Google").

Why This "AI War" Is Likely Pure Hype

How do I cognize nan marketplace is getting irrational complete AI? Well, AI stocks going up 700% successful a matter of weeks is 1 apt parameter of fundamentals becoming wildly disconnected from reality.

Another is Alphabet, nan world hunt and online advertizing king, falling 8% successful a azygous time because of a correction made by its chatbot, Bard.

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WSJ

How do I cognize that this diminution was irrational? Well, for 1 thing, a $100 cardinal diminution successful marketplace headdress complete a azygous correction from a chatbot is almost surely a knee-jerk reaction.

How do I know?

For 1 thing, because ChatGPT is famously inaccurate. A truth highlighted by immoderate of its astir awesome feats.

ChatGPT achieved 60 percent accuracy connected nan US Medical Licensing Exam, indicating its imaginable successful advancing artificial intelligence-assisted aesculapian education." - Healthanalytics.

Granted, 60% is nan minimum passing people for measurement 1 of USMLE, truthful technically, ChatGPT passed. But 40% inaccuracy pinch aesculapian facts is hardly nan life-changing exertion nan banal marketplace is presently making it retired to be.

And let's not hide that Microsoft's $11 cardinal cumulative finance successful OpenAI, astatine a $30 cardinal valuation, doesn't needfully mean that Bing will return complete nan world, either.

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Fortune

It's ironic and hypocritical for nan marketplace to respond to a correction successful a demo of Google's Bard chatbot pinch an 8% crash, while Microsoft's ChatGPT augmented Bing is making mistakes conscionable arsenic bad.

It’s only been a week since Microsoft announced nan overhaul of Bing pinch exertion incorporated from ChatGPT makers OpenAI, and already nan strategy has been accused of sending “unhinged” messages." - Fortune

While Bard made an correction successful its demo astir astronomy facts, look astatine really Bing is messing up.

Independent AI interrogator Dmitri Brereton has discovered that Microsoft’s first Bing AI demos were afloat of financial information mistakes." - Verge

Bing powered by OpenAI is making basal financial truth errors, for illustration misreporting margins for companies taken correct retired of their quarterly reports.

Bing cites nan “Bissell Pet Hair Eraser Handheld Vacuum” and lists nan con of it having a short cord magnitude of 16 feet. “It doesn’t person a cord,” says Brereton. “It’s a portable handheld vacuum.” - Verge

It's besides made different silly errors, which shouldn't astonishment anyone pinch communal sense. This comparatively caller exertion will return years to amended to nan constituent wherever it tin beryllium utilized reliably for astir applications.

Bing Thinks It's Still 2022

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Verge

Some users person reported that Bing's AI-powered beta moreover thinks we're still successful 2022 and that phones that opportunity different mightiness beryllium effective.

Does this look for illustration a game-changing exertion that will dethrone Google's 93% marketplace stock successful search?

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Statcounter

Do you cognize nan only point much shocking than GOOG's 93% marketplace stock successful search? The truth that Yahoo is still successful 3rd spot and that Bing has really LOST marketplace stock since ChatGPT launched.

In November 2022, Bing was astatine 3.4%, and moreover aft each nan ChatGPT hype and nan first rollout of Chatbot-integrated Bing, it's down to 3.0%.

  • Google went from 92.1% to 92.9% during this ChatGPT-inspired hysteria.

Why Alphabet Investors Shouldn't Worry About Bing

Google has plans to merchandise much than 20 A.I. products and features this year, The New York Times has reported. The A.I. hunt motor features, which nan institution said would get soon, will effort to distill analyzable accusation and aggregate perspectives to springiness users a much conversational experience.

The institution besides plans to dispersed its underlying A.I. exertion done partners truthful that they tin build varied caller applications." - New York Times.

Google has been moving connected AI since nan opening and chatbots for astir a decade.

Morgan Stanley said that monthly trackers comparing ChatGPT, Bing, and Google show "no worldly signs" of weakness from Google." - Seeking Alpha.

Morgan Stanley is confirming what Statcounter information is showing, that truthful far, Microsoft's much-hyped "super Bing" isn't moving nan needle against Google.

Despite a shaky motorboat earlier this week of its AI chatbot Bard, Wells Fargo expert Brian Fitzgerald thinks nan AI hype rhythm has created an opportunity for Google moreover arsenic nan onset of high-profile title threatens nan tech giant's prestige arsenic nan leader successful nan industry...

The Wells Fargo expert based on that there's room for AI deployment without disrupting Google's halfway business, including rolling retired nan exertion for "noncommercial, precocious funnel, apical of chimney queries and searches." He added that Google has a "tech lead successful conversational AI" and "any conception that they are playing drawback up here" is "naive."- Seeking Alpha (emphasis added).

ChatGPT has been trained connected information only up done 2021, and nan measurement these kinds of chatbots are trained requires billions of hours of confirming whether aliases not its responses make sense. Then its instrumentality learning algorithms adapt.

Alphabet takes a ton of computing powerfulness and earthy information for these things to improve, and do you cognize who has nan astir information connected earth? Over 1 cardinal group per day usage Google Products, usually respective each day.

Regarding AI and nan emergence of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, we commend Google management’s speedy and clear response, demonstrating that the patient has nan AI exertion prowess to motorboat AI-based features not only successful hunt but besides wrong its advertisement exertion stack and unreality offerings, including Workspace, arsenic nan emergence of AI competitors tin disrupt search, wide integer advertising, and different areas." - Morningstar (emphasis added).

Alphabet isn't resting connected its laurels. Do you cognize really overmuch Microsoft has spent connected AI since 2017? About $15 billion, according to Fortune. $10 cardinal was nan caller finance for 30% of OpenAI.

  • possibly timed to maximize AI-hype.

Do you cognize really overmuch Alphabet has been spending? While it doesn't break down AI spending directly, overmuch of GOOG's R&D fund is focused connected improving its machine-learning algorithms, specified arsenic those powering Bard.

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FactSet Research Terminal

In 2022, GOOG spent almost $40 cardinal connected R&D, and that's expected to turn to astir $53 cardinal successful nan coming years.

  • $298 cardinal successful statement R&D spending by GOOG from 2023 done 2028.

In contrast, here's Microsoft's R&D spending, and support successful mind that Microsoft's R&D is simply a batch little focused connected AI because it's dispersed retired complete things for illustration unreality and hardware.

$173 Billion In R&D Through 2027

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FactSet Research Terminal

Do you deliberation that Alphabet, spending astir doubly what MSFT is connected R&D and successful a much AI-focused manner, will suffer nan AI race?

Bing AI Is More Like Watson Than The New iPhone

Some group deliberation that MSFT integrating OpenAI's merchandise into Bing is game-changing, aliases moreover world-changing, for illustration nan preamble of nan iPhone.

  • The iPhone invented nan modern smartphone and created wholly caller industries for illustration ride-sharing, home-delivery apps, etc.

But I deliberation nan caller Bing is much for illustration Watson, a much-hyped bid of awesome tech that won't alteration its genitor company's future.

Remember Watson? IBM's (IBM) ever-so-hyped AI platform?

A decade ago, IBM’s nationalist assurance was unmistakable. Its Watson supercomputer had conscionable trounced Ken Jennings, nan champion quality “Jeopardy!” subordinate ever, showcasing nan powerfulness of artificial intelligence. This was only nan opening of a technological gyration astir to expanse done society, nan institution pledged." - NYT.

IBM's erstwhile CEO, Ginni Rometty, hailed Watson arsenic a world-changing "moon shot" that would diagnose crab and everlastingly change and moreover create caller industries.

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Ycharts

Since Watson's "beat nan champion Jeopardy champion" stunt successful 2011, its banal is up 12%, including dividends.

  • -23% adjusted for inflation.

Watson was expected to make IBM nan world king of unreality computing.

How did that activity out?

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Statista

IBM is 5th successful world unreality computing and is losing marketplace stock quickly to Google, Microsoft, and Amazon (AMZN).

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IFI claims

For 29 years straight, IBM has led nan United States successful minting patents, astatine its highest filing complete 10,000 US patent applications successful a azygous twelvemonth for innovations ranging from nan ATM to e-commerce, two-nanometer chips, and quantum computing."- Fortune

For 30 years, IBM has prided itself connected generating nan astir yearly patents of immoderate U.S. company. Today it has nan 16th largest progressive patent portfolio connected earth, pinch 43,000.

IBM's Patent Prowess And Watson Glory Literally Didn't Do Anything For Investors

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FAST Graphs, FactSet Research

There was nary use to IBM's business aliases shareholders from each its much-hyped patents and Watson.

And frankincense far, successful nan constricted clip since ChatGPT took nan world by storm, location is arsenic zero grounds that AI is going to move nan needle for Microsoft.

Don't Believe The Hype: Microsoft And Alphabet Are Both AI Winners

Unlike IBM, which I don't urge owning different than successful scale costs wherever you don't person a choice, Microsoft and Alphabet are some world-beater Ultra SWAN (sleep-well-at-night) bluish chips pinch agleam futures up of them.

Why?

Let's see their equilibrium sheets first, nan champion measurement of basal banal consequence location is.

  • The only measurement you suffer 100% of your money successful a banal is if it goes bankrupt.

MSFT is 1 of 2 U.S. companies pinch an AAA in installments rating. In fact, it's nan only U.S. institution pinch 3 of them.

  • 0.07% 30-year bankruptcy risk
  • lower than nan US Treasuries by 0.29%, according to S&P
  • 1 successful 1,429 chance MSFT goes to zero successful nan adjacent 30 years.

GOOG's in installments standing is AA+ stable, nan aforesaid arsenic nan US Treasury's, according to S&P.

  • 0.29% chance GOOG defaults successful nan adjacent 3 decades, nan aforesaid arsenic nan US Treasury.

Alphabet has $114 cardinal successful rate connected its balance sheet and $102 cardinal successful nett cash.

Microsoft has $100 cardinal successful rate and $51 cardinal successful nett cash.

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FactSet Research Terminal

Both companies are free rate travel minting machines whose superior return programs are nan worldly of Wall Street legend.

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FactSet Research Terminal

But do you cognize which of these world-beating Ultra SWAN tech titans is nan intelligibly amended bargain today?

Alphabet Is The Clearly Better Buy Today

GOOG is generating higher free rate travel than MSFT, is increasing faster, and is spending much connected R&D that virtually could alteration nan world.

  • it has 2 "moonshot" different stake subsidiaries moving connected a cure for aging.
  • a imaginable multi-trillion yearly payoff if it works.

Alphabet's Medium-Term Growth Consensus

Year Sales Free Cash Flow EBITDA EBIT (Operating Income) Net Income
2022 $282,836 $60,010 $110,132 $74,842 $59,972
2023 $299,779 $74,122 $116,741 $78,261 $66,233
2024 $336,191 $87,733 $132,525 $91,494 $77,475
2025 $372,657 $104,146 $155,636 $106,162 $89,814
2026 $407,160 $127,388 $167,736 $118,378 $100,556
2027 $437,107 $145,624 $183,292 $130,859 $112,005
2028 $452,574 $162,182 $196,999 $139,601 $122,055
Annualized Growth 2022-2028 8.15% 18.02% 10.18% 10.95% 12.57%
Cumulative 2023-2028 $2,305,468 $701,195 $952,929 $664,755 $568,138

(Source: FactSet Research.)

GOOG's maturation is akin to MSFT isolated from successful free rate flow, wherever it's expected to present Buffett-like maturation of 18% annually done 2028.

Microsoft's Medium-Term Growth Consensus

Year Sales Free Cash Flow EBITDA EBIT (Operating Income) Net Income
2022 $198,270 $65,149 $97,843 $83,383 $69,447
2023 $209,024 $61,924 $100,474 $85,262 $69,637
2024 $232,960 $75,258 $115,831 $98,028 $79,940
2025 $263,551 $90,914 $135,123 $113,542 $92,443
2026 $306,057 $104,867 $153,954 $133,016 $106,550
2027 $323,166 $119,878 $173,190 $138,270 $117,707
Annualized Growth 2022-2027 10.26% 12.97% 12.10% 10.64% 11.13%
Cumulative 2023-2027 $1,334,758 $452,841 $678,572 $568,118 $466,277

(Source: FactSet Research,)

MSFT is expected to turn 10% to 13% annually successful nan mean term, depending connected what metric you look at.

Alphabet's Long-Term Growth Consensus

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(Source: FactSet Research)

The median semipermanent EPS maturation estimate for GOOG from each 50 analysts who screen it is 14.5%, pinch a scope of 4% to 21%.

Microsoft's Long-Term Growth Consensus

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(Source: FactSet Research)

The median semipermanent EPS maturation estimate for MSFT from each 56 analysts who screen it is 12.9%, pinch a scope of 3% to 25%.

Long-Term Consensus Total Return Potential

Investment Strategy Yield LT Consensus Growth LT Consensus Total Return Potential Long-Term Risk-Adjusted Expected Return
Alphabet 0.0% 14.5% 14.5% 10.2%
ZEUS Income Growth (My family hedge fund) 4.1% 10.2% 14.3% 10.0%
Microsoft 1.0% 12.9% 13.9% 9.7%
Schwab US Dividend Equity ETF 3.6% 8.6% 12.2% 8.5%
Vanguard Dividend Appreciation ETF 2.2% 10.0% 12.2% 8.5%
Nasdaq 0.8% 10.9% 11.7% 8.2%
Dividend Aristocrats 1.9% 8.5% 10.4% 7.3%
S&P 500 1.7% 8.5% 10.2% 7.1%
REITs 3.9% 6.1% 10.0% 7.0%
60/40 Retirement Portfolio 2.1% 5.1% 7.2% 5.0%

(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet, Morningstar.)

GOOG offers somewhat amended semipermanent return imaginable than MSFT, though MSFT is connected way to go a dividend aristocrat successful 2029.

  • 19-year dividend maturation streak for MSFT
  • GOOG isn't expected to salary a dividend until 2026 astatine nan earliest.

Valuation: Alphabet Is The Obvious Winner

Alphabet Historical Market-Determined Fair Value

Metric Historical Fair Value Multiples (all years) 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 12-Month Forward Fair Value
Earnings 25.79 $117.60 $133.33 $159.38 $188.52 $216.38
Average $117.60 $133.33 $159.38 $188.52 $216.38 $136.84
Current Price $96.94

Discount To Fair Value

17.57% 27.30% 39.18% 48.58% 55.20% 29.16%
Upside To Fair Value 21.31% 37.54% 64.41% 94.48% 123.21% 41.16%
2023 EPS 2024 EPS 2023 Weighted EPS 2024 Weighted EPS 12-Month Forward PE 12-Month Average Fair Value Forward PE Current Forward PE

Current Forward Cash-Adjusted PE

$5.17 $6.18 $4.47 $0.83 $5.31 25.8 18.3 10.8

GOOG is historically worthy astir 26X net and coming trades astatine 18.3 but conscionable 10.8X cash-adjusted earnings.

  • 0.74 cash-adjusted PEG ratio
  • Ultra SWAN maturation astatine a awesome price.

Microsoft Historical Market-Determined Fair Value

Metric Historical Fair Value Multiples (10-Years, Nadella Era, New Business Model) 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

12-Month Forward Fair Value

Earnings 25.78 $239.24 $259.86 $302.40 $363.24 $410.42
Average $239.24 $259.86 $302.40 $363.24 $410.42 $265.59
Current Price $269.32

Discount To Fair Value

-12.57% -3.64% 10.94% 25.86% 34.38% -1.40%
Upside To Fair Value -11.17% -3.51% 12.28% 34.87% 52.39% -0.38%
2023 EPS 2024 EPS 2023 Weighted EPS 2024 Weighted EPS 12-Month Forward EPS 12-Month Average Fair Value Forward PE Current Forward PE

Current Forward Cash-Adjusted PE

$10.08 $11.73 $8.72 $1.58 $10.30 25.8 26.1 18.2

MSFT is historically worthy 26X net successful nan Nadella unreality computing era and coming trades astatine beautiful overmuch adjacent worth and a cash-adjusted PE of 18.2.

Long-Term Risk Management: Both Are Legendary, Very Low-Risk Ultra SWANs

There are nary risk-free companies, and nary institution is correct for everyone. You person to beryllium comfortable pinch nan basal consequence profile.

GOOG's Risk Profile Includes

  • political/regulator consequence (anti-trust threats)
  • market stock consequence (from awesome rivals for illustration AMZN, whose ads are 4X arsenic effective arsenic GOOG's)
  • disruption consequence (web 3.0 perchance will let everyone to ain their information and monetize it, forcing GOOG to salary portion of its existent profits connected information to users)
  • M&A execution consequence (lots of mini bolt-on acquisitions and a deficiency of ample M&A opportunities owed to regulatory concerns complete anti-trust)
  • talent retention consequence (tightest occupation marketplace successful complete 50 years)
  • currency consequence (as income go much international)
  • cyber-security risk: hackers and ransomware.

MSFT's Risk Profile Includes

  • Legacy high-margin business is being disrupted (by MSFT itself)
  • disruption risk: AMZN and GOOG are nan different 2 titans successful unreality computing, but tons of smaller rivals (like CRM)
  • M&A execution risk: $85 cardinal Activision acquisition is nan biggest successful its history by far
  • regulatory risk: mostly for early acquisitions arsenic good arsenic information tracking
  • talent retention consequence successful nan tightest occupation marketplace successful 50 years (tech is simply a high-wage sector)
  • currency risk: humble headwind this year.

How do we quantify, monitor, and way specified a analyzable consequence profile? By doing what large institutions do.

Long-Term Risk Management Analysis: How Large Institutions Measure Total Risk

DK uses S&P Global's world semipermanent risk-management ratings for our consequence rating.

  • S&P has spent complete 20 years perfecting their consequence model
  • which is based connected complete 30 awesome consequence categories, complete 130 subcategories, and 1,000 individual metrics
  • 50% of metrics are manufacture specific
  • this consequence standing has been included successful each in installments standing for decades.

The DK consequence standing is based connected nan world percentile of really a company's consequence guidance compares to 8,000 S&P-rated companies covering 90% of nan world's marketplace cap.

MSFT Scores 97th Percentile On Global Long-Term Risk Management And GOOG Scores 93rd

S&P's consequence guidance scores facet successful things like:

  • supply concatenation management
  • crisis management
  • cyber-security
  • privacy protection
  • efficiency
  • R&D efficiency
  • innovation management
  • labor relations
  • talent retention
  • worker training/skills improvement
  • occupational wellness & safety
  • customer narration management
  • business ethics
  • climate strategy adaptation
  • sustainable cultivation practices
  • corporate governance
  • brand management.

Classification S&P LT Risk-Management Global Percentile

Risk-Management Interpretation

Risk-Management Rating

BTI, ILMN, SIEGY, SPGI, WM, CI, CSCO, WMB, SAP, CL 100 Exceptional (Top 80 companies successful nan world) Very Low Risk
Microsoft 97

Exceptional

Very Low Risk

Alphabet 93

Exceptional

Very Low Risk

Strong ESG Stocks 86

Very Good

Very Low Risk

Foreign Dividend Stocks 77

Good, Bordering On Very Good

Low Risk

Ultra SWANs 74 Good Low Risk
Dividend Aristocrats 67 Above-Average (Bordering On Good) Low Risk
Low Volatility Stocks 65 Above-Average Low Risk
Master List average 61 Above-Average Low Risk
Dividend Kings 60 Above-Average Low Risk
Hyper-Growth stocks 59 Average, Bordering On Above-Average Medium Risk
Dividend Champions 55 Average Medium Risk
Monthly Dividend Stocks 41 Average Medium Risk

(Source: DK Research Terminal.)

There are nary risk-free companies, but MSFT and GOOG are 2 of nan lowest-risk ways to gain double-digit market-beating returns successful nan future, according to S&P.

How We Monitor MSFT and GOOG's Risk Profile

  • 106 analysts
  • three in installments standing agencies
  • 109 experts who collectively cognize this business amended than anyone different than management
  • and nan enslaved marketplace for real-time basal risk-assessment.

When nan facts change, I alteration my mind. What do you do, sir?" - John Maynard Keynes.

There are nary ineffable cows astatine iREIT aliases Dividend Kings. Wherever nan fundamentals lead, we ever follow. That's nan principle of disciplined financial science, nan mathematics down retiring rich | and staying rich | successful retirement.

Bottom Line: Don't Believe The AI Hype; Both Alphabet And Microsoft Are Long-Term AI Champions

The past fewer weeks person seen a adjacent hysteria complete AI that is surely to disappoint speculators who deliberation they tin get rich | quickly pinch this breathtaking caller technology.

Don't get maine wrong; AI is nan future. Undoubtedly, it will revolutionize productivity, automation, information analysis, supplier development, and each manufacture connected earth.

But arsenic nosy and awesome arsenic ChatGPT 3.0 is, Bing will not return nan hunt crown from Google. The information is clear. Bing has NOT been gaining marketplace stock moreover aft MSFT paid $10 cardinal for a splashy header astir its latest finance successful OpenAI.

  • an finance that will apt salary disconnected astatine immoderate constituent successful nan future
  • though mostly because MSFT will incorporated nan exertion into unreality computing, not search.

Alphabet 2025 Consensus Return Potential

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(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)

Microsoft 2025 Consensus Return Potential

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(Source: FAST Graphs, FactSet)

Both GOOG and MSFT are world-beater maturation stocks, but GOOG's 30% amended discount to adjacent worth intends it has 3X nan annular return imaginable of MSFT successful nan adjacent 3 years.

Is GOOG nan amended business? No, MSFT is much diversified and has a astir 100% subscription-based business and a somewhat stronger balance sheet.

Its semipermanent consequence guidance is somewhat better, successful nan apical 3% of world companies according to S&P, compared to nan apical 7% for GOOG.

But for caller money today, nan amended bargain is clear; GOOG is simply a smart measurement to play nan caller AI hype pinch a beardown separator of safety.

MSFT has benefited from nan hype and offers nary separator of safety, though it's 1 of nan champion Buffett-style "wonderful companies astatine adjacent prices" connected earth.

Both companies connection a akin 14% aliases truthful semipermanent return potential. GOOG's prodigious free rate flow, which is expected to turn adjacent to 20% per twelvemonth done 2028, will yet make it 1 of nan champion dividend maturation bluish chips of nan future.

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Editor: Naga



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