AMD: Underperforming The Market While Margins Hit All-Time Highs

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Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) has been 1 of nan astir breathtaking turnaround stories successful my career. After narrowly escaping bankruptcy successful 2015, nan institution has made a beardown comeback that only a fewer predicted backmost then.

With lots of promises astir its caller architecture, a comparatively caller CEO, and loss-making operations, it was adjacent to intolerable for nan finance nationalist to foretell what AMD banal has travel to signify today.

Unfortunately, conscionable arsenic excessive pessimism was shaking investors' assurance successful nan 2015/16 period, a likewise powerful hype and mania prevented galore unit investors and marketplace commentators from accurately assessing nan business during nan 2020/21 period.

The Best Of Times And The Worst Of Times

Fundamentally, things could not person been amended for AMD, arsenic successful a matter of conscionable a fewer years, it reached astir $25bn worthy of gross and adjusted operating margins of supra 25%, from $6.7bn worthy of gross and EBIT separator of only 9.4% successful 2019.

AMD Revenue versus EBIT %

Prepared by nan author, utilizing information from Seeking Alpha and SEC Filings

The caller woody for Xilinx did play a domiciled successful each that, though it was mostly integrated gross maturation and successful execution crossed each business units that brought profitability to caller highs.

In opposition to each that, however, AMD's stock value capacity was a monolithic disappointment since nan summertime of 2020, moreover though it delivered a full return of 46%. During nan aforesaid period, nan S&P 500 Index (SP500) returned a full of 33%, which though little is simply a important outperformance for nan broader equity scale connected a risk-adjusted basis.

ChartData by YCharts

* Note: nan starting day of nan chart supra is 14th of July 2020, which is nan day my first bearish thesis connected AMD sewage published

No matter what measurement for consequence we use, investors holding AMD complete this play underperformed nan market. Whether we usage a 2-year aliases 5-year beta (see below), AMD's stock value would request to person delivered astir 70% return successful bid to compensate for its exceptionally precocious marketplace risk.

AMD Beta

Seeking Alpha

If we usage modular deviation arsenic a measurement of full risk, AMD's regular returns since mid-July of 2020 had a modular deviation of 3.4%, while that of nan S&P 500 was only 1.2%. The disparity betwixt annualized monthly returns betwixt nan 2 is moreover worse.

ChartData by YCharts

In a nutshell, achieving only 46% full return complete nan people of astir 2 and a half years is insufficient to compensate for each nan risks associated pinch investing successful AMD.

At nan aforesaid time, nan stock value delivered this sub-par capacity astatine a clip erstwhile some investors and analysts are highly optimistic astir its early prospects. Wall Street Analysts, for example, person not been that bullish successful a very agelong time, which creates important downside consequence connected itself.

AMD Analyst Ratings

Seeking Alpha

So, Exactly What Happened?

Just arsenic I warned successful 2020, AMD's valuation multiples person go detached from its fundamentals owed to nan utmost consequence of some fiscal and monetary authorities pursuing nan pandemic.

On a time-series basis, AMD's income aggregate has now returned to much normal levels erstwhile we see nan company's operating profitability (see below). The caveat, however, is that successful nan chart beneath I americium utilizing Non-GAAP operating profitability for 2022.

AMD valuation versus margins

Prepared by nan author, utilizing information from Seeking Alpha and SEC Filings

Moreover, early profitability will astir apt travel nether unit arsenic nan supportive macroeconomic situation and nan pandemic-related tailwinds for request of semiconductors are improbable to stay successful spot indefinitely. As a matter of fact, location is now a very precocious probability that investors could beryllium reminded of nan cyclical quality of nan industry.

GDP versus silicon shipments

Prepared by nan author, utilizing information from FRED and

AMD's guidance has already outlined immoderate early signs of problem ahead.

As we participate 2023, we expect nan wide request situation to stay mixed pinch nan 2nd half stronger than nan first half. In nan PC market, we are readying for nan PC TAM to beryllium down astir 10% for 2023. We expect to proceed to vessel beneath consumption successful nan first 4th to trim downstream inventory, which is reflected successful our guidance. (...)

For nan afloat twelvemonth of 2023, we are not providing circumstantial guidance owed to nan uncertainty successful nan macro environment.

Source: AMD Q4 2022 Earnings Transcript (emphasis added).

All these risks aside, investors expecting that AMD could erstwhile again waste and acquisition astatine nan lofty levels of 2020-21 play are besides successful for a rude awakening. The logic being that guardant gross maturation utilized to beryllium nan only crippled successful municipality erstwhile it comes to premium valuations connected a cross-sectional basis.

Semiconductors Revenue Growth versus P/E ratios

Prepared by nan author, utilizing information from Seeking Alpha

As liquidity and liking rates normalize, however, it's nary longer only astir gross growth. That is why expected gross maturation rates nary longer thief explicate differences successful Non-GAAP Price-to-Earnings ratios.

Semiconductors Revenue Growth versus P/E ratios

Prepared by nan author, utilizing information from Seeking Alpha

Even if we exclude nan 3 outliers - Nvidia (NVDA), Intel (INTC), and Micron Technology (MU) - from nan adjacent group above, guardant gross maturation still does not grounds a meaningful narration pinch P/E ratios.

Semiconductors Revenue Growth versus P/E ratios

Prepared by nan author, utilizing information from Seeking Alpha

To put it briefly, nan mantra of having precocious top-line maturation complete nan short-run successful bid to execute premium valuation nary longer seems to clasp true, and pinch that different metrics are now acold much important erstwhile it comes to investing successful nan semiconductors space.

What's Next?

With gross maturation being acold little important for valuations, going forward, we would astir apt spot a pivot towards profitability and sustainability of operations wrong nan sector. Although these 2 often spell against each other, precocious gross separator businesses which besides ain and run their ain fabs successful comparatively safer jurisdictions will astir apt beryllium favored by nan market.

Without a doubt, what utilized to activity good complete nan past decade would not needfully beryllium nan winning strategy for nan adjacent 10-year period. That is why I person precocious taken a heavy dive into nan semiconductors manufacture for my subscribers for The Roundabout Investor and person already short-listed 2 names wrong nan sector. Over nan coming months, I will besides beryllium going done each large-cap names successful nan manufacture individually pinch nan purpose of outlining nan winning strategies of tomorrow.

As acold arsenic AMD is concerned, investors should beryllium very captious of guidance relying much heavy connected Non-GAAP metrics arsenic maturation slows down, and shareholder dilution makes caller highs.

AMD Gross Margin Non-GAAP

AMD Investor Presentation

I stay very optimistic astir Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.'s merchandise roadmap. However, I americium cautious that too-aggressive decisions related to superior allocation could supply a similar outcome to that of Salesforce (CRM) successful caller years.

Looking for amended positioned precocious value businesses successful nan semiconductors space? 

You tin summation entree to my highest condemnation ideas successful nan assemblage by subscribing to The Roundabout Investor, wherever I uncover conservatively priced businesses pinch superior competitory positioning. The opportunities laid retired successful nan work also capitalize connected inefficiencies successful nan marketplace associated pinch short-termism, momentum chasing and communicative driven expectations. For much accusation travel nan link provided.

Editor: Naga

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